국제관광수요 결정요인에 관한 연구 = A Study on the Determinants of International Tourism Demand -Focusing on Japanese Tourist Arrivals-

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this study has three folds. Firstly, it is to identify the determinants of international tourism demand to Korea from Japan. Secondly, it is to construct an international tourism demand model. Finally, it is to improve the efficiency of planning and implementing international tourism policy in Korea. Tourist arrivals were used as a dependent variable, while income, real exchange rates, industrial production index and dummies were used as independent variables. Unit root test was carried out to avoid spurious regression before using OLS regression method. The reason is that OLS method assumes that time series data are stationary. If time series data are non-stationary, the coefficients estimated by OLS regression will be unreliable. Therefore, OLS method was used after making time series data stationary. The results showed that industrial production variable was statistically significant. The elasticity was 2.87, which had the most influence in tourism demand from Japan to Korea. In the case of dummy variables, only two variables, political conflicts in 1974 and social unrest in 1980 were significant. Real GDP per capita as a proxy of income and real exchange rate were turned out to be insignificant.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 "환율과 경기가 한국의 주요 도착국 관광수요에 미치는 효과" 28 (28): 9-23, 2004

2 "해외관광마케팅 비용의 효율성에 관한 계량적 분석: 다변수 회귀분석 및 B/C 분석을 중심으로" 20 (20): 52-62, 1996

3 "한류관광객 방한특성 분석 : 방한외래객실태조사 결과를 중심으로" 한국관광공사 2005a

4 "한국관광통계 (1977c-2005c)" 한국관광공사 2005c

5 "한국관광에 대한 미국인 일본인 및 대만인 방문객들의 수요예측모형에 관한 연구 관광학연구" 141-156, 1990

6 "한국관광공사 40년사" 2002a

7 "한국관광계량모형(KTRI-99)구축 한국관광연구원" 한국관광연구원 1999

8 "한국 국제관광수요의 계량경제학적 예측에 관한 연구" 17 : 57-80, 1993

9 "일본 10년 불황 벗어나 이젠 10년 황금기 일군다" 한국경제신문 2005년12월

10 "알기쉬운 경제지표해설" 한국은행 2004

11 "방한관광시장분석" 한국관광공사 2005b

12 "국제관광수요 결정요인에 관한 연구" 4 (4): 33-47, 1987

13 "관광호텔 영세율이 인바운드 관광수요에 미치는 영향분석" 14 (14): 1-18, 2005

14 "관광응용경제학" 일신사 17-19, 2003

15 "관광동향에 관한 연차보고서" 문화관광부 2005

16 "tourism in Mexico Annals of Tourism Research" 21-35, 1982

17 "tourism expenditures in Mexico Annals of Tourism Research" 547-561, 1985

18 "a handbook for managers and researchers" 77-85, 1987

19 "US travel to Western Europe Annals of Tourism Reearch" 529-545, 1985

20 "UN Common Database(UNCDB)" 2005

21 "Tourism forecasting: the general-to-specific approach" 42 (42): 65-74, 2003

22 "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models" 19 (19): 123-141, 2003

23 "Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: modern econometric approaches" Elsevier Science 2000

24 "The use of CPI for tourism prices in demand modeling" 15 (15): 342-346, 1994

25 "The study of international tourism demand A review of findings Journal of Travel Research" 12-23, 1994

26 "The effects exchange rate, income, and habit on Japanese Travel to Canada" income 5 (5): 265-275, 1996

27 "The determinants of expenditures by Canadian visitors to the United States Journal of Travel Research" 1993196-208

28 "The demand for tourism to Greece: A cointegration approach" 4 (4): 171-185, 1998

29 "Testing for a unit root in time series regression" 335-346, 1988

30 "Substitute prices in models of tourism demand" 15 (15): 255-268, 1988

31 "Review of international tourism demand models" 24 (24): 835-849, 1997

32 "Pooling international tourism in Western Europe Annals of Tourism Research" 477-491, 1989

33 "Modelling tourism flows from Europe to Australia" 1 (1): 147-167, 1995

34 "Modeling and forecasting demand in tourism" Academic Press 16-29, 1992

35 "Marketing international tourism to Australia" 13 (13): 1992196-208

36 "Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root" eco (eco): 1981

37 "Journal of Travel Research" 13-20, 1993

38 "International travel to the United States Annals of Tourism Research" 7-20, 1982

39 "International tourism demand models-inclusion of marketing variables" 33-40, 1987b

40 "International demand for the U Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing" 39-50, 1994

41 "Forecasting travel demand when the explanatory variables are highly correlated Journal of Travel Research" 31-34, 1980

42 "Forecasting tourist arrivals" 28 (28): 965-977, 2001

43 "Forecasting tourism demand: an STM approach" 28 (28): 98-112, 2001

44 "Forecasting tourism demand: a cubic polynomial approach" 25 (25): 209-218, 2004

45 "Forecasting tourism demand" 11 (11): 447-475, 1995

46 "Forecasting tourism Demand in Asian-Pacific countries" 25 (25): 597-615, 1998

47 "Factors affecting demand for international trends to 2000 Annals of Tourism Research" 450-466, 1992

48 "Exchange rate volatility and cointegration in tourism demand" 39 (39): 398-405, 2001

49 "Estimation of tourism demand by multivariable regression analysis Evidence from Kenya" 317-322, 1987

50 "Effect of income and price on international tourism" 19 (19): 643-664, 1992

51 "Econometric models for forecasting international tourism demand" 25 (25): 23-30, 1987a

52 "Determinants of tourist arrivals and expenditures in Canada" 34 (34): 43-49, 1995

53 "Determinants of inbound tourist expenditures" 23 (23): 527-542, 1996

54 "Determinants of demand for international tourist flows to Turkey" 288-297, 1984

55 "Demand forecasting in tourism and recreation Progress in Tourism" in C 4-32, 1989

56 "Demand Elasticities of Tourism in Singapore" 239-254, 1986

57 "Country league tables" WTTC 2005b

58 "Cointegration versus least squares regression" 28 (28): 291-311, 2001

59 "Choice of appropriate variables to represent tourists' cost of living" 233-246, 1987

60 "Analysis of Tourism Demand in South Korea: A Cointegration and Error Correction Approach" 3 (3): 25-41, 1998

61 "An empirical analysis of the effects of the exchange rate on Canadian tourism Journal of Travel Research" 13-17, 1987

62 "An econometric model of tourist demand: The case of Greece" 7 (7): 39-49, 2000

63 "An analysis of Hong Kong tourism promotion" 5 (5): 70-75, 2000

64 "Accuracy of econometric forecasts of tourism" 16 (16): 407-428, 1989

65 "A travel demand model for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong" 18 (18): 593-597, 1997

66 "A tourism demand function for the Okanagan" 108-115, 1982

67 "A model of demand for international tourism" 30 (30): 31-49, 2003

68 "A dynamic international demand model" 25 (25): 70-84, 1998

69 "A compact econometric model of tourism demand for Turkey" 19 (19): 99-102, 1998

70 "A Review of Tourism Expenditure Research Progress in Tourism" in C me two : 1990

71 "2006년 6월 10일 최종수정본 접수" 2006년6월

72 "2006년 4월 24일 원고접수" 2006년4월