국내 손보사 언더라이팅주기 분석연구 = Study of Length of the Underwriting Period in Non-life Insurance Industry

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In the non-life insurance industry, profits go through a process of repeating increase and decrease at regular intervals, similar to the economic cycle, which is called a risk acquisition cycle or an underwriting cycle. according to studies related to the underwriting cycle of non-life insurance so far, it is confirmed that there is a cycle of 6-8 years.
The underwriting cycle has an important meaning in term of risk management, and insurers and regulators identify insurance crises in advance and minimize shocks to ensure the continuity of the non-life insurance industry. On this study, with 31combined ratios, the underwriting cycle is obtained using spectral to find out the reality and countermeasures of the non-life insurance industry, and the factors affecting the underwriting cycle are analyzed to provide implications.
Although Korea's combined ratio time series does not have a visual cycle, it shows a continuous and repetitive form that goes up and down the peaks and low points, suggesting the possibility of an underwriting cycle.
In addition, multiple regression analysis is conducted using SPSS 24.0 on GDP, interest rates, and disaster damage expected to cause the underwriting cycle.
The importance of the length of the underwriting period has been ever increasing in the non-life insurance industry, especially in the risk management field. In countries with high developed insurance industries such as the United States and various European nations, underwriting periods of 6 to 8 years have shown to be common. Also, over the last several years, there has been increasing research into the purpose of the existence of underwriting.
In the domestic market, although the analysis of the time series trend of the combined ratio does not show an exact length of underwriting period, it shows a repeating cycling period which has peaks and troughs.
Current existing theories have not been able to prove the reason for the existence of the underwriting period. However by using Spectral analysis and multi variable regression analysis, the domestic market`s length of the underwriting period in the non-life insurance industry can be analyzed more accurately in several different ways. Moreover, through analysis, it is hoped that insurance companies, the insurance authorities and insurance consumers can optimally reduce risk by predicting the situation that the non-life insurance industry faces.
From the result of the research, the average length of domestic underwriting period has been found to be 8.8 years. Further analyses based on different variables such as GDP, the amount of damage from disaster and interest rates show that GDP distinctly influences the non-life insurance industry, especially the marine, fire, specialty and automobile insurance industry.
Consistent with the research thesis, the combined ratio and GDP have shown to be inversely correlated.
However, all other variables excluding GDP do not show any relationship except the amount of damage from disaster in specially insurance. It means GDP caused the length of the underwriting period in domestic non-life insurance industry.
This emphasizes the fact that, at this current point in time, GDP has a direct influence on the length of the underwriting period of the domestic non-life insurance industry.