한국 ICT 제조업 생산이 세계경제에 미치는 영향: 일본정부의 對한국 수출규제에 대한 시사점 = The Impact of Korea’s ICT manufacturing Industry on the World Economy: Implication on Japan’s Export Curb to Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes the impact of Korea’s ICT manufacturing industry on the world economy to get the implications on Japan’s export curb to Korea in July 2019. Different from previous related studies, in this study feedback effect as well as spillover effect is considered in analyzing the effect of Korea’s ICT manufacturing industry on other countries’ industries.
Based on world input-output table(2014) analysis, it is found that in overall China, Japan, the United States and Taiwan as well as Korea are also much more affected by Korea’s ICT manufacturing industry than other countries. The results based on closed model are also similar to the results based on the open model in the aspect of country list related to impact size. The results show that although the Japan’s export curb to Korea would have directly negative impact on Korea’s economy(production, value added, and the number of jobs), other countries which have close economic relationship with Korea ICT manufacturing in global production network also would be negatively affected indirectly in production, value added, and employment.
This study shows that based on open model, Korea’s ICT manufacturing industry induced production of USD 402.3 billion, valued added of USD 133.9 billion, and 2.99 million jobs in Korea’s other industries and other countries’ industries in 2014. Based on closed model endogenizing consumption effect gets larger to USD 1,046.2 billion, USD 444.1 billion, and 12.1 million jobs respectively. Excluding the effect on Korea’s other industries, the numbers based on open model(closed model) are USD 241.8 billion(USD 771.6 billion), USD 7.92 million(USD 335.7 billion), and 1.96 million(9.9 million) jobs respectively. It is also found that based on open model, production of USD 85.7(27.6) billion, value added of USD 21.3(9.6) billion, and the number of workers of 1.3(0.125) million in China(Japan) were induced by Korea’s ICT manufacturing industry production. These findings show that Japan’s export curb to Korea in July 2019 would seriously negative impact on the other countries as well as Korea. This means that not only Korea but also the countries such as China, the United States, and Taiwan which would be negatively affected by the curb need to closely cooperate to stop Japan’s disastrous export curb to Korea.

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