WTO는 보호주의를 억제할 수 있는가? 글로벌 금융위기, 보호주의, 그리고 WTO = Can the WTO Curb Protectionism? Global Financial Crisis, Protectionism, and the WTO

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper explores whether and how trade protectionism has expanded after the global financial crisis in 2008 and the subsequent Great Recession. The mainstream view has insisted that current protectionism has been successfully tamed thanks to various factors; (1) the existence of policy substitutes to protectionism such as fiscal/monetary policies, (2) global value chains that have transformed domestic balance of power in favor of free trade and against protectionism, and (3) well-established international trading institutions represented by the WTO. This paper focuses on the third factor and argues that the WTO has failed to curb the proliferation of protectionism. Due to insufficient and obscure WTO rules in controlling major protectionist measures such as subsidy, anti-dumping, and health/technical regulations, as well as due to the systemic properties of the WTO dispute settlement system that tend to aggravate trade war rather than facilitate mutual free trade, the WTO has fundamental institutional limitations to control trade protectionism, especially when the political commitment of major powers to liberal economic order has rapidly waned as we have seen right now.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 논문은 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 이후 세계적 차원에서 나타나는 보호주의 양상과 이를 둘러싼 논쟁을 살펴보고, 보호주의의 성공적 통제를 주장하는 견해들 중 하나인 ‘WTO 역할론’에 대해서 비판적으로 검토하는 것을 주된 목적으로 한다. 위기 직후 다수의 낙관적 견해와는 달리, 무역차별조치의 빈도는 2014년 이후 상당히 큰 폭으로 증가하고 있으며, 조치의 성격 역시 임시적 단기조치에서 일상적 장기조치로 변화하고 있음에 주목할 필요가 있다. 현재의 보호주의를 억제하는 데 있어 WTO는 근본적 한계를 드러내고 있는데, 반덤핑, 보조금, 비관세장벽 등 보호주의의 수단으로 널리 활용되고 있는 여러 조치들을 규제할 내용적 규정이 WTO 협정의 법규로서 충실하게 마련되어 있지 못하다는 점, 진행 중인 도하라운드 협상의 조기 타결이나 mega-FTA 체결 등 대규모 무역자유화협상의 동력이 최소한 단기적으로는 존재하지 않고 있다는 점, 그리고 보호주의를 억제하는 유력한 수단으로 기대되는 WTO 분쟁해결제도가 주요 국가들 간 상호 보복으로 인한 보호주의의 세계적 확산을 가져올 우려가 높다는 점 등이 그 근거이다. 즉, WTO가 보호주의를 적절하게 통제하기에 제도적·구조적으로 한계가 있다는 것이다.

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