북한 인구 남한 유입의 사회경제적 효과 분석 = Analysis of Socio-economic Effects of North Korean Population Inflow

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study analyzes the economic effects on the South and North Korean population inflow using Multi-Regional static CGE model and South-North Korea integrated Social Accounting Matrix. For scenario analysis, 12 scenarios are built which are 5%, 10%, 20% migration rate and 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% employment rate. As the result, North Korean labor’s migration rate grow, South Korean GDP, consumption, investment are decreased. Especially as more negative impact getting worse, unemployment rate is higher. Moreover, North Korean real economic indexes are more decrease than South Korea due to decrease in manpower by population outflow. Therefore, it is necessary to provide institutional support, such as expanding North Korea base, supporting investment of enterprises, stabilizing employment in South Korea, and strengthening education efforts in North Korea.

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