북한경제의 저발전 극복을 위한 대안적 체제전환 모델의 모색 : 아래로부터의 체제전환 모델 구상과 북한체제에 적용 가능성 및 성공조건 = A Study on an Alternative Model of System Transformation for overcoming Underdevelopment of the North-Korean Economy : A Bottom-up Model Design of System Transformation and Possibility and Successful conditions adopting the North-Korean System

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 연구는 북한의 저발전 극복을 위한 대안적 체제전환 모델을 모색하는 데에 있다. 탈사회주의 체제전환 모델은 신고전주의 경제학에 기초한 ‘충격요법’과 ‘점진주의’ 모델, 그리고 중국과 베트남과 같이 점진적인 경제개혁을 실시했던 ‘당-국가 모델’로 구별할 수 있다. 이들 모델들은 자본주의로의 이행과정에서 경기침체와 인플레이션 그리고 렌트의 확산에 직면하게 된다. 그 결과 경제적 불평등과 저성장 혹은 저발전을 경험하게 된다. 이글은 기존 체제전환 모델의 문제들을 극복하기 위한 대안으로 ‘포스트 케인즈주의적 체제전환 모델’을 ‘대중시장론’과 접목·재구성하여 체제전환과 저발전의 극복을 동시에 추구하는 ‘아래로부터의 체제전환 모델’을 정립하고자 한다. 북한이 저발전을 극복하고 체제전환에 성공하기 위해서는 첫째, 농업개혁, 둘째, 산업구조개혁, 셋째, 시장개혁, 넷째, 무역 개혁 등이 필요하다. 이와 같은 북한의 개혁이 성공하기 위해서는 남한과의‘지속가능한’경제협력 모델이 필요하다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this paper is a research on an alternative model for overcoming underdevelopment in North Korea. The post-socialist models of system transformation could divide the‘shock therapy model’, the‘gradualist model’ based on the neoclassical economics and the ‘party-state model’ which political system continue to remain, instead the political power exercised gradually economic reform. These models faced economic recession, inflation and expansion of rents, so that experienced economic inequality and lower growth or underdevelopment in the transition process. This paper tries to establish a bottom-up model of system transformation as an alternative model for solving this problems ,which restructure the post-keynesian model of system transformation based on the ‘mass-market theory for the third worlds’ development. It emphasizes (1) agricultural reform, (2) industrial structure reform, (3) market reform, and (4) the trade reform for overcoming underdevelopment in North-Korea. North-Korea need ‘sustainable’ economic cooperation with the South-Korea in oder to succeed these reforms.

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