Traffic infrastructure facilities such as roads and railroads that are newly constructed shows a significantly lower level of actual traffic demand than originally predicted demand due to the user's recognition of new routes, toll fee, and comparison ...
Traffic infrastructure facilities such as roads and railroads that are newly constructed shows a significantly lower level of actual traffic demand than originally predicted demand due to the user's recognition of new routes, toll fee, and comparison with alternative means at the beginning of the operation. But after 3 years, the fact that 'Ramp-up' phenomenon that traffic demand is gradually stabilized (steady-state) was proved through various statistical data and research until 2010.
Since 2010, a number of roads built by PPP(Public-Private Partnership) projects have been opened and operated nationwide, and there is sufficient data to compare the expected traffic demand and the actual demand values since the operation of roads. Also, Unlike the past, it is necessary to use real-time traffic information in accordance with the smartphone technology. By those reasons, It was judged that a new study about the period and index of ramp-up on the private highways near the metropolitan area is necessary.
Compared to the case study of the road sector reviewed before 2010, the Ramp-up period was analyzed to be 26 months, an increase of 1 month compared to the original 25 months, and the Ramp-up index was analyzed all years improved(first year: 80.4%→82.3%, second year: 92.9%→95.0%). However, in case of the Suwon-Gwangmyeong Expressway, which was used as the sample of this research, it would have affected the result of Ramp-up as the Gangnam Ring Road was connected at the beginning of the operation of the expressway. Without the result of Suwon-Gwangmyeong Expressway, Ramp-up period was decreased by 24 months. This can be seen as the tendency of the Ramp-up effect was gradually decreased due to the daily use of real-time traffic information by using smartphones.
By analyzing only the private highways in the metropolitan area that have been opened since 2010, there has been a small achievement to judge that the trend that the Ramp-up parameter is changing compared to the past. On the other hand, there are obvious limitations in that various independent variables that can affect the ramp-up, such as the difference between the city and countryside, car and truck, the highway and the general road, and the toll level, have not been considered in various ways.
It should be clearly recognized that the ramp-up phenomenon actually exists, and as a result, it has a significant impact on the benefits and incomes of the earliest operation period. In the future, more in-depth research by the government and the private sector will be needed for a reasonable calculation method of the Ramp-up parameters, and the research results that can be mutually recognized by the government and the private sector are urgent in particular in the PPP(Public-Private-Partnership) business.
Keywords : Ramp-up, Ramp-up ratio, Ramp-up index,Metropolitan New Road, Inference statistics, F-test