ROK-US alliance in transition : policymakers' perceptions on threats and strategic values

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The South Korea-U.S. alliance is on the verge of a profound transformation - politically and militarily - though the alliance is still intact and will continue to function as an effective deterrent against North Korean military aggression in the foreseeable future. The strategic flexibility of U.S. forces stationed in Korea will change the nature of the alliance. The transfer of wartime control will change the institution of the alliance.Several active threats surrounding South Korea have changed into passive ones since the collapse of the Communist bloc. The threat structure perceived by U.S. leaders made the United States reassess the strategic value of South Korea in the post-Cold War era. After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the United States adopted a new world strategy that places a priority on defending the U.S. mainland against asymmetric threats and on making the world safer for the United States by spreading American values. The South Korea-U.S. alliance has been affected subordinately by changes in the U.S. world strategy. At the same time, South Korea has taken more responsibility for its own national security in proportion to its democracy and economic growth. The endurance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance depends on how partners evaluate the strategic values of their ally. The United States can abandon South Korea any time it sees no strategic value in South Korea. But South Korea cannot easily break up the alliance with the United States, because the political and economic burdens are too big to sacrifice the benefits of the alliance. As South Korea''s President Roh Moo-hyun played a critical role in retaking wartime control and in concluding the free trade agreement, both of which will lead to a change in the alliance, South Korea''s policymakers'' perceptions in the future are as important as U.S. policymakers'' perceptions in shaping the fate of the two countries'' alliance.There are two major challenges for the continuation of the alliance - North Korea and China. The United States tackles North Korea''s nuclear weapons in its framework of an anti-terror operations and South Korea tries to solve the nuclear crisis for the survival of the Korean people. If South Korea accepts the broader role of U.S. forces in Korea to deal with more diverse contingencies than North Korean aggression, the two countries'' policies vis-?-vis emerging China will be an important factor in shaping the future of the alliance.Though the alliance could break up if the common threats disappear, the alliance can continue to exist if both countries find common goals, instead. As South Korea shares the same values with the United States, such as democracy and a free market economy, the alliance can evolve into a regional security partnership that goes beyond Korean security. Common goals (e.g. regional stability) can bond the military alliance. Through this re-definition of the alliance, the two countries can enhance the flexibility of the alliance without damaging their traditional friendship.