國際收支및 換率決定에 관한 貨幣的 接近方法 = A Theoretical Review on the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments and Exchange Rates

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Monetary Approach to balance of payments and exchange rates and, according to this approach, to explain some empirical facts for which Keynesian Traditional Approach can not provide any theoretical basis.
The empirical facts, which appear in the turbulent period from the middle of sixties to the early seventies, are as follows;
ⓛthe relationship between increasing income and continuous revaluation and balance of payment surplus in Japan and W. Germany, especially.
②the ambiguous relationship between capital flow and change in interest rate.
③short-run overshooting of exchange rate, since collapse of Brettonwood System in the early seventies.
Monetary Approach can provide theoretical basis for the above facts. In particular, regarding the balance of payments and exchange rates as monetary phenomenon which are determined by money demand and supply, Monetary Approach can find the ultimate cause of the short-run overshooting of exchange rate is monetary disturbance. And by using stock models where flow is considered as the gap between actual stock and desired stock, Monetary Approach makes it possible to remove the ambiguous assumptious about capital flow.
Though the Monetary Approach is expanded to the Asset Market Approach, it is considered as the special type of the modified Traditional Approach, namely Portfolip Approach. But its theoretical contribution can be found in combining the stock model with the Traditional Approach which use flow models. And recently, many empirical tests give the theoretical significance to Monetary Approach.
The summary of this paper and its policy implication are as follows;
First, the exchange rate will typically overshoot its long-run change in its short-run response to monetary policy, monetary disturbance. But adjustment path of exchange rate to change in price level, viz. real disturbance, is likely to be smooth and monotonic.
Second, due to great impacts on balance of payments and exchange rates, monetary policy should be used carefully in our country highly dependent on foreign sector, to keep the credit of Korean ?? which is a very important element for external and internal balance.
Third, the policy target of holding optimum foreign reserves should be pursued not by political regulations but by the economically desirable tool of monetary policy.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 序 論
• Ⅱ. 國際去來 理論의 發展過程
• Ⅲ. 國際收支 理論으로서의 貨幣的 接近方法
• Ⅳ. 煥率決定 理論으로서의 貨幣的 接近方法
• A. 플로우 模型의 短點
• B. 短期 및 長期의 煥率決定
• C. 攪亂要因이 있을때의 動態分析
• 1. 貨幣的 攪亂要因(monetary disturbance)의 경우
• 2. 實質攪亂要因(real disturbance)의 경우
• Ⅴ. 要約 및 展望
• 參考文獻
• ABSTRACT