환경평가 지원을 위한 지역 환경현황 분석 시스템 구축 및 운영 개발계획으로 인한 국내 대기질 변화 전망 및 개발계획의 적정성 평가를 위한 대기환경 분석 = Analysis System for Regional Environmental Status to Support Environmental Assessment : Projection of Changes in Air Quality in Accordance with Development Plan and Analysis of the Atmospheric Environment in Order to Evaluate the Adequacy of the Developme

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study aims to determine the environmental status of South Korea by region and establish an analysis system to assess the adequacy of future development plans. To that end, we projected changes in air quality in accordance with development plan and analyzed the atmospheric environment in order to evaluate the adequacy of the development plan. Projection of changes in air quality in accordance with development plan To create a framework of air quality projections for the annual development plan, we gathered relevant information about development projects based on the environmental impact assessment reports that KEI has reviewed over the past five years in the area of industrial complex and energy business development plan. The collected data were used to estimate the emissions from the development plans. We estimated emission unit of non-point sources besides the emissions from fuel use that were not taken into account in the process of estimating emissions from the development plan. Estimated emission unit was applied to calculate the emission associated with the development plan and the changes in air quality were examined. During the target period, air pollutants emission associated with the development plan was relatively large for the Chungnam region compared to other regions. The places with the highest air pollutants concentrations were Ulsan and Chungnam region, which have the largest emissions among the areas where the development projects are located, and their effects are relatively large. In the case of O₃, high concentrations were monitored in areas such as the West Coast, Gwangyangman Bay, and Ulsan located quite far from the emission sources of development projects. Therefore, it can be said that compared with other substances, the regulation and management of ozone should target a wider area. ○ Analysis of the atmospheric environment in order to evaluate the adequacy of the development plan It is necessary to identify where the pollutant sources are originating from in order to assess the development potential by municipality. Based on the need, we analyzed the contribution concentration of local governments and emission sources in order to evaluate the adequacy of the local development plan. The target areas of Gyeonggi Province, Ulsan, and Busan were selected, and we analyzed how each emission source (point, mobile, and area emissions) contribute to these areas and their vicinity. By analyzing the contribution concentration rate of emission sources of Ulsan and Busan, it was confirmed that the characteristics of contribution concentration rate were different by pollutant, which defies the usual expectations that contribution concentration rate will be proportional to the emissions of each pollutant. The NOx emissions of Ulsan were 23,652 ton/yr for point source and 9,144 ton/yr for mobile source. Point source emission was 2.5 times higher than mobile source emission. However, the contribution concentration rate of NO₂ to the line source emission was 15%, standing higher than the contribution concentration rate of NO₂ to the point source emission, which is 10%. Meanwhile, O₃ classified as a secondary pollutant is produced as a result of photochemical reaction. Due to these characteristics, the contribution rates of Busan and Ulsan were different. For the O₃ concentration of Ulsan it was found that the emissions from Ulsan contributed 11% while Busan contributed 11%. However, in case of Busan`s O₃ concentration, emissions from Busan contributed 6%, while Ulsan contributed 12%. Theses results show that ozone emissions from neighboring areas have a bigger impact than those from local emissions. This result shows that there is a limit in developing effective policies for improving the actual air quality of a region as long as they only deal with information such as the amount of emissions from emission sources in the relevant local government. Therefore, to ensure an effective policy design that enables successful air management, it is necessary to switch to a new policy system based on scientific analysis, one produced by strengthening the system of managing air quality status information at the local level and by using contribution analysis data on the concentration produced by emission sources located in each local government.