메르스의 발발과 확산이 대중교통 이용에 미친 영향

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Globalization sometimes provides unexpected negative effects on public health because of the outbreak and proliferation of avian infectious diseases resulting from more active inter-national movement of people and goods. Seoul had experienced the MERS(Middle East Respiratory Syndrome). During its outbreak and proliferation, citizens tried to avoid its potential infection among people. One of its responses was to take less rail transit. This study is aimed at identifying the impacts of the outbreak and proliferation of MERS on rail transit ridership by employing and analyzing the ARIMAX(autoregressive integrated moving average with external factors) modeling, based on daily rail transit ridership. Analysis results demonstrate the time, size, and durability of peoples response for the MERS. First, the response time for the MERS’s outbreak is differentiated by travel purpose. Transit ridership at the afternoon hours decreased right after it occur. However, its decrease appeared when its proliferation become severer. Second, the reduction size in rail ridership was biggest when its number of infected people more increase. Third, its impact was more persistent at the afternoon hours than anytime else, even though it was not everlasting.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 김경자, "일부도시 입원 아동 부모의 건강정보원에 대한 신뢰도와 전자 건강문해력이 건강정보지향에 미치는 영향" 한국디지털정책학회 14 (14): 295-307, 2016

2 성현곤, "고밀도시에서의 토지이용이 통행패턴에 미치는 영향: 서울시 역세권을 중심으로" 대한국토·도시계획학회 41 (41): 59-75, 2006

3 Balkhair, A., "The Struggle Against MERS-CoV (The Novel Coronavirus)" 28 (28): 226-227, 2013

4 Sands, P., "The Neglected Dimension of Global Security — A Framework for Countering Infectious-Disease Crises" 374 : 1281-1287, 2016

5 Jabareen, Y. R., "Sustainable Urban Form:Their Typologies, Models, and Concepts" 26 : 38-52, 2006

6 Anggraeni, W., "Performance Comparisons Between Arima and Arimax Method in Moslem Kids Clothes Demand Forecasting: Case Study" 72 : 630-637, 2015

7 Prasannavenkatesh Durai, "Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus: transmission, virology and therapeutic targeting to aid in outbreak control" 생화학분자생물학회 47 : 1-10, 2015

8 Morens, D. M., "Emerging Infectious Diseases: Threats to Human Health and Global Stability" 9 (9): e1003467-, 2013

9 OECD, "Compact City Policies: A Comparative Assessment, OECD Publishing"

10 Fung, I. C-H., "Chinese social media reaction to the MERS-CoV and avian influenza A(H7N9) outbreaks" 2 : 31-, 2013

11 Lee and Hamzah, "Calender variation model based on ARIMAX for forecasting sales data with Ramadhan effect" 2010

12 Zwart, O., "Avian Influenza Risk Perception, Europe and Asia" 13 (13): 290-293, 2007

13 Boscarino, J. A., "Assessing Community Reactions to Ebola Virus Disease and Other Disasters: Using Social Psychological Research to Enhance Public Health and Disaster Communications" 17 (17): 234-238, 2015

14 Peter, D., "ARIMA vs. ARIMAX – which approach is better to analyze and forecast macroeconomic time series?" 2012

15 Arunraj, N.S., "A hybrid seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and quantile regression for daily food sales forecasting" 170 : 321-335, 2015