The objectives of this paper are to apply fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) - related techniques to (1) extract causal knowledge from a specific problem-domain and (2) perform a series of causal analysis in complicated decision making area. We propose a set o...
The objectives of this paper are to apply fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) - related techniques to (1) extract causal knowledge from a specific problem-domain and (2) perform a series of causal analysis in complicated decision making area. We propose a set operation-based augmentation (SOBA) algorithm to combine multiple FCMs developed by multiple experts. Based on the SOBA knowledge acquisition algorithm, we can obtain a causal knowledge base fairly representing multiple experts' knowledge about a problem domain. The causal knowledge base built by SOBA algorithm can be described as a matrix form, guaranteeing mathematically compact operation compared with a production (if-then) knowledge base. We applied our method to stock market analysis problem which is a typical problem of highly unstructured problems in OR / MS fields.