Spatial synchrony analysis for the convergence of the distributionmodel of the pests and crop

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Local distribution of insect pest population should be changed in near future as well as their host based on climate change scenario. Although well defined insect geographical distribution model is developed and projected its potential establishment in Korea, it has defectiveness without geographical matching of its host, because, in agriculture, insect pest damage is related by host-insect synchrony in time and space.
In this study, the possible geographical distributions of two insect species, Corposina sasakii (native species) and light brown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana (possible invasive species), were estimated by CLIMEX simulation under RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Projected farm land suitability of apple trees was obtained from open website of Fruit Research Division, NIHHS, RDA. All the potential geographical distribution maps were overlapped then the spatial synchrony were analyzed by SADIE (spatial analysis with distance indices) , which allows improved interpretation of the spatial synchrony.