Export Behavior Analysis of Incheon Port

국문 초록 (Abstract)

인천항의 수출은 침체되어 있으며 전국 항만에서 차지하는 위상도 하락하고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 인천항의 수출행태를 밝히기 위해 인천항의 수출함수를 환율과 해외경기와 같은 경제변수로 구성하되, 환율변수로 미달러화에 대한 원화 환율, 광의의 명목실효환율과 실질실효환율, 협의의 명목실효환율과 실질실효환율을 투입한다. 최소제곱법을 적용하여 광의의 명목실효환율로 구성된 모형이 가장 적합함을 보인다. 변수에 대한 ADF 단위근 검정과 모형에 대한 EG공적분 검정을 실시한 후 차분변수는 안정적이며 수출함수는 공적분 관계를 갖는다는 것을 밝힌다. 모형이 안정적임에 따라 오차수정모형을 도출하여 오차수정계수가 음의 부호로 유의하나 그 크기가 그다지 크지 않아 수출에서 불균형이 발생할 경우 이를 조정하여 다시 균형으로 수렴하는데 많은 시간이 소요된다는 것도 보인다. 이러한 완만한 조정속도는 분산 분해 분석에서 인천항의 수출이 환율과 경기와 같은 경제 변수에 대단히 외생적인 것에 원인을 둔다는 것도 보인다. 충격반응분석을 실시하여 해외경기와 환율 충격이 인천항의 수출에 지속적으로 양의 효과를 미치나 이동회귀분석을 통해 환율과 경기가 인천항의 수출에 미치는 영향력이 비교적 빠른 속도로 약해진다는 것도 밝힌다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

In this paper we analyse the long-run and short-run relationship between Incheon port’s export and its determinants, foreign income and exchange rate, using the techniques of cointegration and error correction, the rolling regression analysis, and impulse response function. This study employs the Ordinary Least Squares method to choose the most appropriate the export demand function and finds that the model with broad nominal effective exchange rate is more suitable for explaining the Incheon port’s export behaviors than the models with the other effective exchange rates or nominal exchange rate. The model is estimated using monthly data for the period 2000-2020. The cointegration technique finds a favorable evidence of a long-run relationship between export demand, foreign income and exchange rate for Incheon port. The error correction model indicates a slow disequilibrium adjustment and the variance decomposition analysis shows that Incheon port’s exports are very exogenous to economic variables. The response of exports following a positive shock to foreign income increases onwards in a consistent manner, while a positive shock to the nominal effective exchange rate has a lasting and negative impact on exports over the forecast horizon.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 1. Introduction
• 2. Export demand function and rolling regression
• 3. Methodologies and Analysis
• 4. Conclusion
• 참고문헌
• 요약

참고문헌 (Reference)

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