The Impact of Democratization on Economic Growth in Asia: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The Third Wave of Democratization in Asia occurred as a result of economic development (e.g. South Korea and Taiwan) or financial crisis (e.g. The Philippines and Thailand). As a result, the primary focus of new democratic governments in Asian countries is likely to be economic performance. Despite a vast volume of studies, there is a void in quantitative studies on the impact of democratization on economic growth. To fill in the gap in the literature, we have empirically tested how the transition to democracy affected economic growth in Asia, using interrupted time-series analysis. In contrast to our expectation of significant (positive or negative) impact of the transition to democracy on economic growth, particularly negative effects on economic growth at the early stage of democratization process, our analysis shows that the transition to democracy does not have a significant impact on economic growth in Asia. In other words, democratization does not seem to help or hamper economic growth.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Diamond, Larry, 7 (7): 1996

2 Chua, Amy, "World on Fire: How Exporting Free Market Democracy Breeds Ethnic Hatred and Global Instability" Doubleday 2002

3 Bollen, Kenneth A., "World System Position, Dependency, and Democracy: The Cross-National Evidence" 48 (48): 1983

4 Huntington, Samuel P, "Understanding Political Development : An analytic Study" 1987

5 Hahm, Sung Deuk, "U.S. and Japanese Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia: A Comparative Analysis" 36 (36): 2008

6 O’Donnell, Guillermo, "Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracie" Johns Hopkins University Press 1986

7 Jaggers, Keith, "Tracking Democracy’s Third Wave with the Polity III Data" 32 (32): 1995

8 Huntington, Samuel P., "The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century" University of Oklahoma Press 1991

9 Przeworski, Ada, "The State and the Economy under Capitalism" Harwood Academic Publishers 1990

10 Krieckhaus, Jonathan, "The Regime Debate Revisited: A Sensitivity Analysis of Democracy’s Economic Effect" 34 (34): 2004

11 Holt, Robert T., "The Political Bases of Economic Development" 1966

12 Horowitz, Shale, "The Persistent Liberalizing Trend in Foreign Economic Policies: The Role of Dispersed Interest Groups, Policy Legacies, and Ideologies, In The Political Economy of International Financial Crisis: Interest Groups, Ideologies, and Institutions" Rowman and Littlefield 2001

13 Cumings, Bruce, "The Origins and Development of the Northeast Asian Political Economy: Industrial Sectors, Product Cycles, and Political Consequences" 38 (38): 1984

14 Gasiorowski, Mark J., "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Democratic Transition: Learning Processes in the Third and Fourth Waves of Democratization" 41 (41): 2006

15 Weede, Erich, "The Impact of Democracy on Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Cross-national Analysis" 36 (36): 1983

16 Zakaria, Fareed, "The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad" Norton 2003

17 McFaul, Michael, "The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transitions in the Postcommunist World" 54 (54): 2002

18 Sirowy, Larry, "The Effects of Democracy on Economic Growth and Inequality: A Review" 25 (25): 1990

19 Sandler, Todd, "The Economics of Defense" Cambridge University Press 1995

20 Crozier, Michel, "The Crisis of Democracy, Report of the Governability of Democracies of the Trilateral Commission" New York University Press 1975

21 Sloan, John, "The Consequences of Regime Type for Public Policy Output" 20 (20): 1987

22 Kaplan, Robert D., "The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War" Random House 2000

23 Lipset, Seymour Martin, "Some Social Requisites of Democracy:Economic Development and Political Legitimacy" 53 (53): 1959

24 Neubauer, Deane E., "Some Conditions of Democracy" 61 (61): 1967

25 Marsh, Robert M., "Sociological Explanations of Economic Growth" 23 (23): 1988

26 Adelman, Irma, "Society, Politics, and Economic Development: A Quantitative Approach" Johns Hopkins University Press 1967

27 Chirot, Daniel, "Social Change in the Twentieth Century" Harcourt Brace Jovanovich 1977

28 Clague, Christopher, "Property and Contract Rights in Autocracies and Democracies" 1 (1): 1996

29 Leblang, David, "Property Rights, Democracy and Economic Devel-opment" 49 (49): 1994

30 Przeworski, Adam, "Political Regimes and Economic Growth" 7 (7): 1993

31 Huntington, Samuel P, "Political Order in Changing Societies" Yale University Press 1968

32 Haggard, Stephan, "Political Economy of Democratic Transitions" Princeton University Press 1995

33 Huntington, Samuel P., "Political Development, In Handbook of Political Sciecne, Vol. 3: Macropolitical Theory" Addison- Wesley 1975

34 Bollen, Kenneth A, "Political Democracy and the Timing of Development" 44 (44): 1979

35 Bollen, Kenneth A., "Political Democracy and the Size Distribution of Income" 50 (50): 1985

36 Jackman, Robert W., "On the Relation of Economic Development to Democratic Performance" 17 (17): 1973

37 Feder, Gershon, "On Exports and Economic Growth" 12 (12): 1983

38 De Hann, Jacob, "New Evidence on the Relationship between Democracy and Economic Growth" 86 (86): 1995

39 Meyer, John W., "National Economic Development, 1950-70: Social and Political Factors, In National Development and the World System" University of Chicago Press 1979

40 Diamond, Larry, "Is Pakistan the (Reverse) Wave of the Future?" 11 (11): 2000

41 Siermann, "Institutions, and the Economic Performance of Nations" Edward Elgar Publishing Limited 1998

42 Sen, Amartya, "Human Development and Financial Conservatism" Asian Development Bank (17) : 1995

43 Landau, Daniel, "Government and Economic Growth in the LDCs: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980" 35 (35): 1986

44 Barro, Robert J., "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth" 98 (98): 1990

45 Wade, Robert, "Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization" Princeton University Press 1990

46 Helliwell, John F., "Empirical Linkages between Democracy and Economic Growth" 24 (24): 1994

47 Evans, Peter, "Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation" Princeton University Press 1995

48 Marsh, Robert M, "Does Democracy Hinder Economic Development in Latecomer Developing Nations?" 2 : 1979

49 Rodrik, Dani, "Do Democratic Transition Produce Bad Economic Outcomes?" 9 (9): 2005

50 Olson, Mancur, "Dictatorship, Democracy, and Growth" 87 (87): 1993

51 Kurzman, Charles, "Democracy’s Effect on Economic Growth: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis, 1951-1980" No. 1(2002). 37 (37): 2002

52 Feng, Yi, "Democracy, Political Stability and Economic Growth" 27 (27): 1997

53 Dahl, Robert, "Democracy and Its Crisis" Yale University Press 1989

54 Krieckhaus, Jonathan, "Democracy and Economic Growth: How Regional Context Influences Regime Effects" 36 (36): 2006

55 Heo, Uk, "Democracy and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis" 33 (33): 2001

56 Arat, Zehra F., "Democracy and Economic Development: Modernization Theory Revisited" 21 (21): 1988

57 Przeworski, Adam, "Democracy and Economic Development, In The Evolution of Political Knowledge: Theory and Inquiry in American Politics" Ohio State University Press 2004

58 Rao, Vaman, "Democracy and Economic Development" 19 (19): 1985

59 Przeworski, Adam, "Democracy and Development: Political Insti-tutions and Well-Being in the World 1950-1990" Cambridge University Press 2000

60 Kohli, Atul, "Democracy and Development, In Development Strategies Reconsidered" Transaction Books 1986

61 Kang, David C., "Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Development in South Korea and the Philippines" Cambridge University Press 2002

62 Burkhart, Ross E., "Comparative Democ-racy: The Economic Development Thesis" 88 (88): 1994

63 Feierabend, Ivo K., "Coerciveness and Change: Cross-national Trends" 15 (15): 1972

64 Brunk, Gregory G., "Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy: An Empirical Inquiry" 15 (15): 1987

65 Russett, Bruce M., "Bureaucracy and Polyarchy as Predictors of Performance: A Cross-national Exam" 8 (8): 1975

66 Dick, G. William, "Authoritarian versus Nonauthoritarian Approaches to Economic Development" 82 (82): 1974

67 Pye, Lucian W., "Aspects of Political Development" Little, Brown 1966

68 Gasiorowski, Mark J., "An Overview of the Political Regime Change Dataset" 29 (29): 1996

69 Berg-Schlosser, Dirk, "African Political Systems: Typology and Performance" 17 (17): 1984

70 De Hann, Jacob, "A Sensitivity Analysis of the Impact of Democracy on Economic Growth" 20 (20): 1995