다중밀집시설 대형화재 훈련 시나리오 개선방안에 관한 연구

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

According to the 2018 Disaster Yearbook, the large-scale fire in
public-use facilities has the highest frequency of occurrence among the
social disasters that have occurred in the last 10 years (2009-18).
public-use facilities are defined as facilities used by multiple and
unspecified number of people, and if it occurs the damage is very large
hence. in order to prepare for such disaster situations, safety education and
practice-based training are carried out, execution basis training is based on
the purpose of creating a scenario, assuming an actual disaster situation.
However, the current scenario-based training does not meet the training
objective of strengthening response capacity. Therefore, this study tried to
prepare an improvement plan for the training scenario by analyzing the
current problems. In order to find the cause of large-scale damage in
actual fires in public-use facilities. past events during which the central
and regional disaster safety countermeasures headquarters were activated
for the past 10 years were selected. The factors that made the fire larger
were derived from the media reports on each case. Six of them were
finally selected and risk analysis was performed, by using event tree
analysis. As a result the risk factor with the highest probability of
occurrence was the non-operation of sprinklers with a probability of about
18.29%, the fire alarm not working at 5.82%, and 5.16% of simultaneous
occurrence of fire engine approach delay and sprinkler non-operation during
golden time. Next, the manuals and scenarios of domestic public-use
facility fire response training were analyzed. As a result the risk factors
that occurred in the actual fire accident were not applied to the existing
scenario, In addition the occurrence of the worst case was not considered,
Therefore, in this study, an improvement plan for the training scenario was
presented. First, worst scenario training that applied all situationsthat
occurred in actual fire cases was presented. Worst scenario training is a
training method applied by assuming all possible failure situations in each
stage. Second, it is a training scenario for each stage that considers the
probability of failure as a result of risk assessment. Based on the risk
assessment result, the training is carried out by selecting a scenario for
each response stage of the training.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

2018 재난연감에 따르면 최근 10년간(09~18년) 발생한 사회 재난 중 발생 빈도
가 가장 높은 것은 다중밀집시설 대형화재이다. 다중밀집시설은 불특정 다수인
등 다중이 이용하는 시설로 한번 발생하였을 경우 그 피해가 매우 크다. 그래서
이러한 재난 상황에 대비하기 위해 안전교육과 실행 기반훈련을 실시한다. 실행
기반 훈련이란 그 목적에 따라 시나리오를 작성하여 실제 재난상황을 가정하고
시간경과에 따라 대응해나가는 훈련이다. 하지만 현재 시나리오 훈련은 대응역
량 강화라는 훈련의 목적을 충족시키지 못하고 있으며 훈련을 위한 훈련이라는
평가를 받고 있다. 그래서 본 연구는 실질적인 재난대응역량 강화를 위해 현재
의 문제점을 분석하여 훈련 시나리오의 개선방안을 마련하고자 하였다.
실제 다중밀집시설의 화재에서 피해를 대형화하는 원인을 찾고자 최근 10년간
중앙·지역 재난안전대책본부가 운영된 다중밀집시설의 대형화재를 분석 대상으
로 선정하였다. 각각의 화재사례에 대한 언론 보도 내용을 통해 화재를 대형화
한 요인들을 도출하였다. 이 중 6가지를 최종 선정하여 위험성 평가를 실시하였
으며 그 방법으로는 사건 수 분석 기법을 활용하였다. 위험성 평가 결과 가장
발생 확률이 높은 위험요인은 스프링클러 미작동으로 약 18.29%의 확률을 보
였으며 화재경보기 미작동 5.82%, 골든타임 내 소방차 접근지연과 스프링클러
미작동 동시발생이 5.16% 순으로 나타났다.
다음으로 국내 다중밀집시설 화재 대응훈련의 매뉴얼 및 시나리오를 분석하였
다. 분석 대상은 ⑴ 행정안전부의 다중이용시설 훈련 가이드북과 ⑵ 노인요양병
원 화재 대응시나리오, ⑶ 보건복지부의 의료기관 화재안전 매뉴얼 및 ⑷ 서울
소방재난 본부의 다중이용시설 훈련 가이드북을 선정하였다. 분석 결과, 기존
시나리오에는 실제 화재사고에 발생했던 위험요인이 적용되지 않았고, 최악의
상황 발생이 고려되지 않았으며, 훈련의 모든 대응 과정이 성공적으로 진행되
었다. 이와 같이 기존 시나리오는 실질적인 재난대응역량을 강화하기 어렵다고
판단되어 훈련 시나리오의 개선방안을 제시하였다.
첫째, 실제 화재사례에서 발생한 상황들을 모두 적용한 Worst scenario 훈련을
제시하였다. Worst scenario 훈련은 단계별로 발생할 수 있는 실패 상황을 모두
가정하여 적용한 훈련 방법이다. 둘째, 위험성 평가 결과 실패 확률을 고려한
각 단계별 선택 시나리오 훈련이다. 위험성 평가 결과를 기반으로 훈련의 대응
단계별로 시나리오를 선택하여 진행하는 훈련방법이다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서 론 ··································································································1
• 1.1 연구배경 및 필요성 ··············································································1
• 1.2 연구의 목적 ····························································································4
• 1.3 연구의 방법 ····························································································4
• 1.4 연구 동향 ································································································8
• Ⅱ. 다중밀집시설 대형화재 위험성 평가 ·······································14
• 2.1 다중밀집시설의 법적정의 ································································14
• 2.2 대형화재의 법적정의 ······································································16
• 2.3 대형화재별 언론보도에 따른 화재 피해 내용분석 ··················19
• 2.4 대형화재 피해 요인분석결과 ························································21
• 2.5 다중밀집시설 대형화재 위험성 평가 ············································27
• Ⅲ. 국내 다중밀집시설 화재대응훈련 시나리오 분석 ··············34
• 3.1 법적근거 ································································································34
• 3.2 국내 다중밀집시설 대형화재 화재대응훈련 시나리오 분석 ······ 36
• 3.2.1 다중이용시설 위기상황 매뉴얼 표준안 및 훈련 가이드북 ····· 36
• 3.2.2 안전취약계층에 대한 맞춤형 훈련 가이드라인 및 시나리오 · 40
• 3.2.3 의료기관 화재안전 매뉴얼 ·····························································42
• 3.2.4 다중이용시설 관계자 훈련 가이드 북 ·········································46
• 3.2.5 2019 안전한국훈련 시나리오 ·························································49
• 3.3. 기존훈련시나리오와 실제화재 상황 비교분석 및 시사점 ········· 52
• 3.4. 국내 다중밀집시설 화재대응 훈련시나리오 개선방안 ···············57
• 3.4.1 Worst scenario 훈련 ·······································································58
• 3.4.2 과거실패확률을 고려한 각 단계별 선택 시나리오 훈련 ········· 63
• Ⅳ. 결 론 ···························································································65
• 참고문헌 ····················································································································68
• 부 록 ····················································································································73
• 국문요약 ··················································································································115
• 감사의 글 ················································································································117