[특집] 중국의 안보정책 대안

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article tries to shed new light on strategic issues relevant to China as a major player in the Asia-Pacific region. It begins with a description of the changed geopolitical environment in Northeast Asia, followed by an analysis on China's threat percep tions. It concludes with a prediction that a new “Great East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere” will come true in the 21st century. It has been commonly acceptable that US Forces in East Asia played important blancing role against the Soviet threat during Cold War years. The end of the Cold War, however, diminished the raison d'etre of the US Forces in the area. So it is desirable for the US Forces to withdraw from this area. Russian threat has been declined and also regional dialogue on the security in North east Asia has been develped. Accordingly, even if Russia should revitalize itself as a military power in some time, it could be con tained in the reginal security mechanism. Moreover, three coun tries in Northeast Asia, China, Korea, Japan shares the tradition of using Hanchi( Chinese charcters) for thousands of years. Three countries have been pursuing managed economic devel opment that is based on the authoritarian pluralism. Because of these common characters, the three countries could build up mu tual cooperation regime in Northeast Asia. The real threat to the PRC's current regime comes not from foreign military intervention, as it was mistakenly perceived by Mao Zedong and his comrades-in arm during the Cold War years, but from Chinese people's pervasive dissatisfaction with the regime's corruption, which is clearly discerned by Deng Xiaoping and his successors today. Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely. Unless a political reform is launched and succeeds, in which the current regime in China takes initiative to change it self from one-party dictatorship to a multi-party check-and-bal ance democracy, the corruption will not end but the regime will end. The current regime will definitely change, hopefully and quite possibly, through its own political reform or, otherwise, be changed by angered people. Several factors may work in favor of extending people's pa tience before the political reform is introduce. Economic develop ment is, of course, the most effective factor for the reason that it improves people's living standard and thus makes them less rebel lious. Enhancing the nation's international prestige is another stabi lizing factor. It is commonsensical that a regime can survive longer than expected if it can hold high the nation's international prestige, and that revolution is more likely to occur in a nation defeated or humiliated by foreign enemies. The Mainland-Taiwan reunification is yet another factor of na tional emotion in favor of the central goverment in Beijing to continue its rule. Punishing Taiwanese separatists offers a good opportunity for Beijing to unite the mainland people around the goverment, if the PLA is able to execute the military punishment in an excellent way. The next 15years will be important for the world in a transi tion from making expedient adjustment to the post-Cold War en vironment to searching for ways toward global eternal harmony. The major orientation of this transition is guided by the fact that “economics has taken command of international relations븬?ideol ogy has declined in the face of pragmatic impulses stemming from economic primacy.”23 However, economic development alone may not necessarily lead to intra-national and internation al harmony. Political devebpment and ideological convergence must follow. Northeast Asia, where the best planned capitalist economy in Japan and South Korea meets the most market-ori ented socialist economy in China and where social discipline and participatory are equally appreciated, may become a vanguard in the search for the harmony based on socialism-capitalism conver gence. History tends to repeat itself, though not exactly in every de tail an

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 동북아 하위 지역에서의 지정학적 환경
• Ⅲ. 변화된 세계 속에서의 중국의 위협에 대한 인식 변화
• Ⅳ. 신 “대동아공영권”
• Summary