Data Driven Approach to Forecast Water Turnover = 데이터 탐색 기법 활용 전도현상 예측모형

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper proposed data driven techniques to forecast the time point of water management of the water reservoir without measuring manganese concentration with the empirical data as Juam Dam of years of 2015 and 2016. When the manganese concentration near the surface of water goes over the criteria of 0.3mg/l, the water management should be taken. But, it is economically inefficient to measure manganese concentration frequently and regularly. The water turnover by the difference of water temperature make manganese on the floor of water reservoir rise up to surface and increase the manganese concentration near the surface. Manganese concentration and water temperature from the surface to depth of 20m by 5m have been time plotted and exploratory analyzed to show that the water turnover could be used instead of measuring manganese concentration to know the time point of water management. Two models for forecasting the time point of water turnover were proposed and compared as follow: The regression model of CR20, the consistency ratio of water temperature, between the surface and the depth of 20m on the lagged variables of CR20 and the first lag variable of max temperature. And, the Box-Jenkins model of CR20 as ARIMA (2, 1, 2).

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 1. 서 론
• 2. 데이터 및 연구방법
• 3. 실증분석 결과
• 4. 결 론

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 박석순, "한강수계 수질측정망 개선을 위한 목적 지향 설계 방안에 관한 연구" 대한환경공학회 27 (27): 453-460, 2005

2 권세혁, "하천유역 수질 관측망 구성연구" 한국산업경영시스템학회 35 (35): 187-191, 2012

3 경민수, "통계적 기법을 이용한 경안천 유역의 수질 측정망 구성" 대한토목학회 26 (26): 291-300, 2006

4 박수영, "유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 낙동강 유역의 수질 측정망 설계에 관한 연구" 한국물환경학회 23 (23): 697-704, 2007

5 Box, G., "Time Series Analysis : Forecasting and Control" Holden-Day 1970

6 Chapra, S.C., "Surface water-quality modeling" McGraw-Hill 1997

7 Casella, G., "Statistical Inference" Duxbury Publication 1990

8 Kim, E.H., "Modeling Study of Seasonal Temperature Variations and Hydraulic Turnover in the Paldang Lake" 249-250, 2001

9 Kwon, S.W., "Evaluation of Water Quality Monitoring Network Using Entropy Method" 21 (21): 501-509, 2001

10 Bertone, E., "Data Driven Statistical Model for Manganese Concentration Prediction in Drinking Water Reservoirs" 2013

11 Kazi, T.G., "Assesement of water quality of polluted lake using multivariate statistical techniques : A case study" 72 : 3010-3309, 2009