중국의 대만 무력통일 워게임에 대한 연구 중국 군사월간지 <함선지식>의 워게임에 대한 검토를 중심으로 = A Study about the Wargame of China's Armed Unification on Taiwan -Based on the review of the Chinese military magazine <Naval and Merchant ships>’s Wargame

국문 초록 (Abstract)

시진핑 주석이 대만 통일을 위해 만일의 경우 무력 사용을 배제하지 않겠다는 의지를 강하게 표출함에 따라 관련 국가들에서도 대응 방안에 대한 논의가 확대되고 있다. 이에 본고는 중국 국유기업 군사월간지<함선지식>이 제시한 대만 무력통일 워게임을 미국 CSIS워게임과 비교 분석해보며, 그 타당성을 검증해보았다. 중국 인민해방군이 대만 봉쇄에 이어 단기간에 상륙에 성공한다는 중국측 워게임 결과와 달리 CSIS 워게임은 대만과 미국이 승리한다는 결과를 제시하였다. 이러한 차이는 중국측 워게임이 미일의 참전 가능성을 배제하고, 대만군의 전투 의지를 낮게 가정하였기 때문이었다. 미일의 참전 논의가 확대되고 있고, 무기체계의 발전과 함께 전쟁 양상의 다변화에 따라 중국의 대만 무력통일 워게임도 지속 업그레이드될 것으로 전망된다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As President Xi Jinping strongly expressed his willingness not to rule out the armed unification on Taiwan, discussions on countermeasures are also expanding in related countries. This study analyzed the Chinese military magazine <Naval and Merchant ships> wargame compared with US CSIS War Games. While Chienese wargame showed PLA successfully landed in a short time by blocking Taiwan island, the CSIS wargame suggested the victory of Taiwan and the United States as a result. This difference is due to assumptions of Chinese wargame not considering the participation of the U.S.-Japan and low willingness to fight of Taiwan military. As discussion on the U.S.-Japan engagement is expanding, and wargame of China's armed unification on Taiwan is expected to continue to be upgraded.

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