인구구조 변화가 주택가격에 미치는 영향 분석: 서울 및 6대 광역시를 중심으로 = A Study on the Impact of the Demographic Changes to Housing Prices: Focusing on Seoul and Six Metropolitan Cities in Korea

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 논문은 서울특별시와 6대 광역시를 대상으로 2003년부터 2012년 기간 동안 패널자료를 이용하여 고령인구 급증과 베이비붐 세대의 은퇴 등 인구구조 변화가 주택시장에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 주택가격 변화에 미치는 요인은 인구변화 요인과 소득과 관련된 경제적 요인에 의해 영향을 받으나 주택공급 요인은 유의하지 않았다. 고령인구 비율이 1% 증가할 경우 주택 가격은 0.12% 하락하는 것으로 추정되었다. 장래 인구변화를 고려하여 주택시장은 수요자 위주의 중심으로 주택공급계획을 수립할 필요가 있으며, 은퇴하는 인구를 지역 내 정착을 유도하는 도시 계획적 관리방안을 강구할 필요가 있다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

We analysed the impact of demographic changes, such as the sharp increase of aged population and the sooner retirement of baby boomers to housing market, by using panel data of Seoul and six metropolitan cities in Korea from 2003 to 2012. We used several variables related demographic, socio-economic, and housing supply changes we found that some of the demographic and socioeconomic variables are statistically significant effects on the housing price changes, but all of the housing supply variables are not statistically significant. One important result is that the 1% increase of old dependency rate is associated with a decline of 0.12% in house prices. Anticipating the consequences of an aging baby boom generation should prepare planners to manage the supply of new construction to meet future housing needs and help the ageing baby boomers to stay in the cities.

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