Core Model of the Forestry Investment Project Decision Support System Based on the Real Option

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The forestry investment project has the typical characteristics such as the flexibility, phases, uncertainty, and so on, and needs reasonable applicable decision method and decision support system. The traditional forestry investment project evaluation mostly adopts the net present value method, and ignores option property of the forestry investment project, which is easy to cause the decision-making bias and erroneous judgment. This paper analyzes the real option characteristics of the forestry investment project from the perspective of real option, constructs the analysis model of real option based on the binomial tree theory, and applies the instance to verify. The instance proves that forestry investment project decision will be more scientific based on the real option model. Finally, on the basis of this model, the forestry investment project decision support system is preliminarily studied.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• 1. Introduction
• 2. Forestry Investment Project Features and Option Characteristics Analysis
• 2.1 Definition of Forestry Investment Project
• 2.2 Characteristics of Forestry Investment Project
• 2.3 Real Options Types and Option Value Analysis in the Forestry Investment Project
• 3. Construction of Forestry Project Evaluation Model based on theReal Option
• 3.1 Binomial Tree Pricing Model
• 3.2 Pricing Model of the Forestry Investment Project
• 4. Model Instance Analysis (Demonstration base of the Jatrohpa curcasL. bio-diesel raw material in Sichuan)
• 4.1 Basic Situation of Project and Evaluation of Net Present Value
• 4.2 Evaluation of Project Value based on Real Option
• 4.3 Analysis Diagram of Underlying Assets Value and Option Value
• 4.4 Analysis for Deferred Option
• 4.5 Analysis of Evaluation Results
• 5. Construction of the Forestry Project Investment Decision-makingSupport System
• 5.1 Analysis of System Requirement
• 5.2 Realization of System Technology Research
• 5.3 System Architecture Design
• 5.4 System Function Module Design
• 6. Conclusions
• Acknowledgement
• References