인구구조의 변화가 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 = Influence of changes in population structure on housing price

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This article is aim to result in debating about house price whether its rising or lowing in the future. It is based on the population which is the most important aspect for the house demand. This study has analysed about the influence of the house price in related about the population trend. In particular, Japan and U.S.A, which have experienced the similar population trend as Korea, are examined. And the big rising of population, baby boom, is also analysed because baby boom generation have changed the social, cultural and economic paradime.
In the case of Japan, baby boom happened between 1947 and 1950 in which the birth rate had increased quickly. After baby boom, the birth rate has decreased gradually, it is 1.35 since 2010. The decrease of birth rate reveals the booming of aged people.
In the case of U.S.A, baby boom happened between 1946 and 1964. At that time, the birth rate was larger than 3.0. However it was 1.79 by decreasing since 1964. Now it has increased gradually up to 2.0 which is caused by the immigration into U.S.A. The population increasing by the big immigration happened since 1980's. This increase of population by immigration have impacted economy and also house price.
In the case of Korea, population structure has shown the similar trend as Japan. baby boom happened between 1957 and 1974. As that, birth rate has decreased and it reached 1.07 in 2005. It increased a little bit since 2005, but it is still low level by comparing other countries. As a result, Korea has shown faster increase of aged people than Japan. The way to solve the low birth rate and increasing aged people is the expansion of multi-culture family. In Korea, the big immigration is not possible however it has happened in U.S.A. The expansion of multi-culture family is the one of the solutions for increasing population. Also the increase of return-farmer is interested for resolving population problem.
The house price trend has shown the same trend as the population change. For example, the house price in Japan, which had risen since 1970's, has lowed because of the decreasing of birth rate. The decreasing of birth rate results in the lowing the house demand.
In U.S.A., the same trend of house price as Japan has shown, but it has risen a little bit because of the immigration and the low interest policy.
In Korea, the house price has shown continuous rising since 1980's. The short term lowing of house price happened in the foreign exchange crisis, in 1997, but the overall trend has risen so far. However the retirement of baby boom generation may will cause the lowing of house price in Korea.
The house price trend in Korea has shown the similar behavior as Japan rather than U.S.A. As a result, it is possible to estimate the lowing of house price. Also the movement of people inside Korea, as return farmer, will cause the change of house price trend. The house price in rural area, in particular return farmer's house, may will rise in the future although the house price in city area lowing.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 제Ⅰ장 서론 1
• 제1절 연구배경 및 목적 1
• 제2절 연구방법 및 범위 2
• 제3절 선행연구 2
• 제Ⅱ장 인구구조 및 주택가격에 대한 이론 4
• 제1절 인구 및 인구구조와 생산가능인구 4
• 1. 인구의 이해 4
• 2. 인구구조 5
• 3. 생산가능인구 6
• 제2절 주택 및 주택시장 6
• 1. 주택 6
• 2. 주택 및 주택시장의 특성 6
• 3. 주택의 가격 형성 7
• 제3절 인구와 주택가격의 관계 7
• 제Ⅲ장 외국의 인구구조 변화 및 주택가격 분석 8
• 제1절 일본의 인구구조 변화 및 주택가격 8
• 1. 인구측면 8
• 2. 주택가격측면 13
• 3. 일본의 인구와 주택가격의 관계 14
• 제2절 미국의 인구구조 변화 및 주택가격 15
• 1. 인구측면 15
• 2. 주택가격측면 20
• 3. 미국의 인구와 주택가격의 관계 21
• 제3절 영국의 인구구조 변화 및 주택가격 22
• 1. 인구측면 22
• 2. 주택가격측면 27
• 3. 영국의 인구와 주택가격의 관계 27
• 제4절 독일의 인구구조 변화 및 주택가격 28
• 1. 인구측면 28
• 2. 주택가격측면 32
• 3. 독일의 인구와 주택가격의 관계 33
• 제Ⅳ장 한국의 인구구조 변화 및 주택가격 34
• 제1절 인구측면 34
• 1. 인구 및 생산가능인구 변화 추이 34
• 2. 인구구조 41
• 제2절 주택가격측면 43
• 1. 한국의 주택형태 43
• 2. 한국의 주택가격에 영향을 미치는 요인 43
• 제3절 한국의 인구와 주택가격의 관계 43
• 1. 인구구조 변화 추이 43
• 2. 주택가격변화 추이 45
• 3. 인구구조 변화를 기반으로 한 주택가격의 변화 예측 45
• 제Ⅴ장 결론 47
• 참고문헌 50
• Abstract 51