Monthly Hanwoo supply and forecasting models

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

As the number of scaled-up ranches increased and agile responses to market changes became possible, decision-making by Hanwoo cattle farms also began to affect short-term shipments. Considering the changing environment of the Hanwoo supply market and the response speed of producers, it is necessary quickly to grasp the forecast ahead of time and to respond accordingly in an effort to stabilize supply and demand in the Hanwoo market. In this study, short-term forecasting model centered on the supply of Hanwoo was established. The analysis conducted here indicates that the slaughter of Hanwoo males increases by 0.248 as the number of beef cattle raised over 29 months of age in the previous month increases by one, and 0.764 Hanwoo females were slaughtered under average conditions for every Hanwoo male slaughtered. With regard to time, the slaughtering of Hanwoo was higher in January and August, which are months known for holiday food preparation activities for the New Year and Chuseok in Korea, respectively. Simulations indicated that errors were within 10% in all simulations performed through the Hanwoo supply model. Accordingly, it is considered that the estimation results from the supply model devised in this study are reliable and that the model has good structural stability.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 조재성, "한우 수급 및 가격 전망 모형 구축 연구" 한국농식품정책학회 44 (44): 210-235, 2017

2 Martin L, "The price-forecasting performance of futures markets for live cattle and hogs : A disaggregated analysis" 63 : 209-215, 1981

3 Leuthold RM, "The price performance on the futures market of a nonstorable commodity : Live beef cattle" 56 : 271-279, 1974

4 Huffman WE, "Supply and demand functions for multiproduct US cash grain farms : Biases caused by research and other policies" 71 : 761-773, 1989

5 McKillop W, "Supply and demand for forest products-an econometric study" 38 : 1-132, 1967

6 Rahul Joshi, "Raman spectroscopic analysis to detect olive oil mixtures in argan oil" 농업과학연구소 46 (46): 183-194, 2019

7 Jeong M, "Quarterly livestock model"

8 Warren GF, "Interrelationships of supply and price" Cornell University 1928

9 Deaton A, "Economics and consumer behavior" Cambridge University press 1980

10 Sarmiento C, "Dynamics of beef supply in the presence of cointegration : A new test of the backwardbending hypothesis" 22 : 421-437, 2000

11 Rosen S, "Dynamic animal economics" 69 : 547-557, 1987

12 Waugh FV, "Demand and price analysis: Some examples from agriculture (No. 1316)"

13 Jeong M, "Consumer behavior for meat consumption and tasks to respond to its changes"

14 Rosen S, "Cattle cycles" 102 : 468-492, 1994

15 Chambers RG, "Applied production analysis: A dual approach" Cambridge University Press 1988

16 Zellner A, "An efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias" 57 : 348-368, 1962

17 Seo H, "A study on the advancement of cattle outlook using the beef traceability system" Korea Rural Economic Institute 2017

18 Cho J, "A study on improving the precision of livestock outlook and establishing a policyassociated program" Korea Rural Economic Institute 2014

19 Seo H, "A study on development of Korea agricultural outlook model" Korea Rural Economic Institute 2020

20 Chudleigh PD, "A review of bio-economic simulation models of beef production systems and suggestions for methodological development" 8 : 273-289, 1982