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      Effectiveness of Sensitivity Analysis for Parameter Selection in CLIMEX Modeling of Metcalfa pruinosa Distribution

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      https://www.riss.kr/link?id=A105935528

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      다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

      Purpose: CLIMEX, a species distribution modeling tool, includes various types of parameters representing climatic conditions; the estimation of these parameters directly determines the model accuracy. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of ...

      Purpose: CLIMEX, a species distribution modeling tool, includes various types of parameters representing climatic conditions; the estimation of these parameters directly determines the model accuracy. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of parameters for the climatic suitability calculated by CLIMEX for Metcalfa pruinosa in South Korea. Methods: We first changed 12 parameters and identified the three significant parameters that considerably affected the CLIMEX simulation response. Results: The result indicated that the simulation was highly sensitive to changes in lower optimal temperatures, lower soil moisture thresholds, and cold stress accumulation rate based on the sensitivity index, suggesting that these were the fundamental parameters to be used for fitting the simulation into the actual distribution. Conclusion: Sensitivity analysis is effective for estimating parameter values, and selecting the most important parameters for improving model accuracy.

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      참고문헌 (Reference)

      1 안기수, "국내시판 살충제에 대한 미국선녀벌레의 감수성" 한국농약과학회 15 (15): 329-334, 2011

      2 김동언, "국내 미국선녀벌레의 분포 및 기주식물" 한국환경과학회 23 (23): 1385-1394, 2014

      3 W. S. Hallgren, "The uncertainty in simulations by a Global Biome Model (BIOME3) to alternative parameter values" Wiley 6 (6): 483-495, 2000

      4 Andrewartha, H. G., "The Distribution and Abundance of Animals" University of Chicago Press 1954

      5 Jane Elith, "Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time" Annual Reviews 40 (40): 677-697, 2009

      6 Subhashni Taylor, "Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modelling Potential Distribution of Lantana camara L." Public Library of Science (PLoS) 7 (7): e40969-, 2012

      7 Farzin Shabani, "Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modeling Potential Distribution of Phoenix dactylifera L." Public Library of Science (PLoS) 9 (9): e94867-, 2014

      8 Hoffman, E. O., "Radiological Assessments: A Textbook on Environmental Dose Assessment" Nuclear Regulatory Commission 11.1-11.47, 1983

      9 Kumar P. Mainali, "Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling" Wiley 21 (21): 4464-4480, 2015

      10 변대현, "Predictive analysis of Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) distribution in South Korea using CLIMEX software" 국립중앙과학관 10 (10): 379-384, 2017

      1 안기수, "국내시판 살충제에 대한 미국선녀벌레의 감수성" 한국농약과학회 15 (15): 329-334, 2011

      2 김동언, "국내 미국선녀벌레의 분포 및 기주식물" 한국환경과학회 23 (23): 1385-1394, 2014

      3 W. S. Hallgren, "The uncertainty in simulations by a Global Biome Model (BIOME3) to alternative parameter values" Wiley 6 (6): 483-495, 2000

      4 Andrewartha, H. G., "The Distribution and Abundance of Animals" University of Chicago Press 1954

      5 Jane Elith, "Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time" Annual Reviews 40 (40): 677-697, 2009

      6 Subhashni Taylor, "Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modelling Potential Distribution of Lantana camara L." Public Library of Science (PLoS) 7 (7): e40969-, 2012

      7 Farzin Shabani, "Sensitivity Analysis of CLIMEX Parameters in Modeling Potential Distribution of Phoenix dactylifera L." Public Library of Science (PLoS) 9 (9): e94867-, 2014

      8 Hoffman, E. O., "Radiological Assessments: A Textbook on Environmental Dose Assessment" Nuclear Regulatory Commission 11.1-11.47, 1983

      9 Kumar P. Mainali, "Projecting future expansion of invasive species: comparing and improving methodologies for species distribution modeling" Wiley 21 (21): 4464-4480, 2015

      10 변대현, "Predictive analysis of Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) distribution in South Korea using CLIMEX software" 국립중앙과학관 10 (10): 379-384, 2017

      11 변대현, "Prediction of global geographic distribution of Metcalfa pruinosa using CLIMEX" 한국곤충학회 48 (48): 99-107, 2018

      12 Rieks D. van Klinken, "Predicting invasions in Australia by a Neotropical shrub under climate change: the challenge of novel climates and parameter estimation" Wiley 18 (18): 688-700, 2009

      13 ROBERT R. PATTISON, "Potential distribution of the invasive tree Triadica sebifera (Euphorbiaceae) in the United States: evaluating climex predictions with field trials" Wiley 14 (14): 813-826, 2008

      14 Gudrun Strauss, "Pest risk analysis of Metcalfa pruinosa in Austria" Springer Nature 83 (83): 381-390, 2010

      15 Yeyeun Kim, "Outbreak of an exotic flatid, Metcalfa pruinosa (Say) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), in the capital region of Korea" 한국응용곤충학회 14 (14): 473-478, 2011

      16 R. W. Sutherst, "Modelling non-equilibrium distributions of invasive species: a tale of two modelling paradigms" Springer Nature 11 (11): 1231-1237, 2009

      17 Bruce L. Webber, "Modelling horses for novel climate courses: insights from projecting potential distributions of native and alien Australian acacias with correlative and mechanistic models" Wiley 17 (17): 978-1000, 2011

      18 S.J. Bennett, "Modelling climatic similarities in Mediterranean areas: a potential tool for plant genetic resources and breeding programmes" Elsevier BV 70 (70): 129-143, 1998

      19 Steven J. Phillips, "Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation" Wiley 31 (31): 161-175, 2008

      20 WANG-HEE LEE, "MODEL-BASED ANALYSIS OF IGF-1 EFFECT ON OSTEOBLAST AND OSTEOCLAST REGULATION IN BONE TURNOVER" World Scientific Pub Co Pte Lt 24 (24): 63-89, 2016

      21 M. A. Burgman, "MANAGING LANDSCAPES FOR CONSERVATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY" Wiley 86 (86): 2007-2017, 2005

      22 정재민, "Invasion risk of the yellow crazy ant (Anoplolepis gracilipes) under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 climate change scenario in South Korea" 국립중앙과학관 10 (10): 548-554, 2017

      23 정재민, "Insect distribution in response to climate change based on a model: Review of function and use of CLIMEX" 한국곤충학회 46 (46): 223-235, 2016

      24 Jeffery S. Bale, "Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores" Wiley 8 (8): 1-16, 2002

      25 Jan Hanspach, "Geographical patterns in prediction errors of species distribution models" Wiley 20 (20): 779-788, 2011

      26 "GBIF Occurrence Download"

      27 Poutsma, J., "From Biological Control to Invasion: The Ladybird Harmonia Axyridis as A Model Species" Springer 103-125, 2007

      28 J. I. Thacker, "Forecasting of periodic fluctuations in annual abundance of the bean aphid: the role of density dependence and weather" Wiley 121 (121): 137-145, 1997

      29 SIMON BARRY, "Error and uncertainty in habitat models" Wiley 43 (43): 413-423, 2006

      30 S. Zaehle, "Effects of parameter uncertainties on the modeling of terrestrial biosphere dynamics" American Geophysical Union (AGU) 19 (19): GB3020-, 2005

      31 Stephen L. Lapointe, "Effect of Soil Moisture on Development of Diaprepes abbreviatus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)" JSTOR 82 (82): 291-299, 1999

      32 Cory Merow, "Developing Dynamic Mechanistic Species Distribution Models: Predicting Bird-Mediated Spread of Invasive Plants across Northeastern North America" University of Chicago Press 178 (178): 30-43, 2011

      33 D. A. Tortorelli, "Design sensitivity analysis: Overview and review" Informa UK Limited 1 (1): 71-105, 2007

      34 정재민, "CLIMEX-based Analysis of Potential Geographical Distribution of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti in South Korea" 한국농업기계학회 42 (42): 217-226, 2017

      35 Kriticos, D. J., "CLIMEX Version 4: Exploring The Effects of Climate on Plants, Animals and Diseases" CSIRO 2015

      36 Busby, J. R, "BIOCLIM-a bioclimate analysis and prediction system" 6 : 8-9, 1991

      37 Lee, C. B., "Aspect and cause of long term trend of climate in Ulleungdo and Dokdo Area" 1 (1): 19-28, 2007

      38 J GUREVITCH, "Are invasive species a major cause of extinctions?" Elsevier BV 19 (19): 470-474, 2004

      39 Dixon, A. F. G., "Aphid Ecology" Chapman & Hall 1998

      40 D. M. Hamby, "A review of techniques for parameter sensitivity analysis of environmental models" Springer Nature 32 (32): 135-154, 1994

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      학술지 이력

      학술지 이력
      연월일 이력구분 이력상세 등재구분
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      2013-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
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      2008-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
      2006-04-11 학술지명변경 한글명 : 한국농업기계학회지 -> 바이오시스템공학 KCI등재
      2006-01-01 평가 등재학술지 유지 (등재유지) KCI등재
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      2001-07-01 평가 등재학술지 선정 (등재후보2차) KCI등재
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      학술지 인용정보

      학술지 인용정보
      기준연도 WOS-KCI 통합IF(2년) KCIF(2년) KCIF(3년)
      2016 0.15 0.15 0.15
      KCIF(4년) KCIF(5년) 중심성지수(3년) 즉시성지수
      0.14 0.2 0.323 0.11
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