기업은 왜 배당을 지급하는가? = 한국기업의 자료를 이용한 수명주기이론에 대한 실증분석

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study investigates whether there is a relationship between life-cycle of firms and dividend policy in a sample taken from the KOSPI market over the period 1982-2010. In life-cycle theory, dividend policy of firms differs across the need to distribute the firm`s free cash flow by means of investment opportunity set. Specifically, mature firms with current high-profitability and low-growth rate tend to pay dividends because they have fewer attractive investment opportunities, while established firms with low-profitability and high-growth rate become more likely to retain profits because they have abundant positive NPV investment opportunities. We predict a positive and highly significant relation between the probability that a firm pays dividend and life-cycle. We use RTE (retained earning to book equity) variable as proxy of life-cycle of firms. The main empirical results are as follows: First, when comparing paying and non-paying firms, paying firms have higher profitability and larger cash balance than non-paying firms. However, paying firms have less investment opportunities than non-paying firms. After IMF, proportions of payers have steadily decreased over time. We calculate firm`s propensity to pay dividends (CP) as difference between actual percent that pay them and expected percent of firms that pay dividends in a estimated logit regression model. Over a period excluding the IMF period, 2001, and global financial risk period, CP shows negative value and it indicates that many firms pay more dividend than expected. Second, we find that in a logit regression, controlling for cash balances and dividend premium, there is a positive relation between RTE and the probability that a firmpays dividend. Furthermore, these results offer that there is a weak negative relation between dividend premium and dividend policy. Thus, our evidence indicates that dividend policy of Korean firms doesn`t support dividend premium theory. Third, we examine the impact of RTE vs profitability/growth on the probability of paying dividends by means of portfolio approach. Firms with high profitability and low growth rate exhibit a substantially higher probability of paying dividends than firms with low profitability and high growth rate, despite controlling firm size. Also, differences in the probability of paying dividends are associated with firmssize differences. Fourth, RTE and the propensity to pay dividend (CP) have some predictive power for the second year ahead and the third year ahead stock return. Fifth, Whenwe divide the study period into before IMF period and after IMF period, RTE plays an important role in dividend policy. It indicated that these findings support life-cycle theory.

참고문헌 (Reference)

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