지역대학의 지역내총생산 유발효과 분석: 지역산업연관표를 이용한 상지대학교 사례 연구 = A Study on the Derivation Effect of Local Universities on GRDP, Gross Output and Employment: a Case of Sangji University with Regional IO Tables

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of a local university on its regional economy. Using the Regional IO Tables of the BOK, it predicts the derivation effect on GRDP, gross output and employment in Kangwon Province, caused by the consumption and investment of Sangji University which is located in Wonju City, Kangwon Province, Korea.
In most cases in Korea, the papers that analyse the economic effect of local universities on their surrounding regions have adopted the one-sector model of keynesian muliplier. This model tends to overestimate the effect in this case, for a small size of economic activity of certain subjects in the restricted region could not correspond to the chain effect of aggregate variables of a national economy as a whole.
Therefore this paper will use IO model to avoid such a risk. Of course, IO model has other theoretical problem, i. e. there is no guarantee for long-term stable production relations between sectors. Nevertheless, the IO model can offer at least a short term tool to estimate the effects of small units in the certain specific sectors and regions.
According to the prediction, there will be an annual gross output increase of 134 bn KRW, a GRDP increase of 81 bn KRW and employment of 2,188 people derived from the consumption and investment of the University. This prediction assumes that the different categories of final demand (consumption, investment, export etc.) have an equal impact on GRDP, gross output and employment. But this can not correspond to the real relations. Therefore, this paper calculates another prediction, using derivation coefficients which consider differences of influence intensity of consumption, investment and export.
These other results show that the real effect of the consumption and investment of the university would be decreased, because the domestic consumption and investment in Kangwon Province, export being excluded, can not be covered to the high level within its region itself. A larger portion of the final demand must be supplied by other regions. This means the structural weakness of the Kangwon Province.
This paper also estimates negative effects of the location transfer of a local university to the metropolitan region of the capital city by assuming that Sangji University would be located in Kyung-gi Province. The results show that the overall effects are minimal at the national level, while Kangwon Province would lose a great amount of GRDP, gross output and employment.
The estimated effects in this paper must be revised and its conclusions be improved, when the BOK publishes the new regional IO Tables in 2016. Till then, this paper could be regarded as a preliminary attempt and starting point to analyse the economic impact of all the local universities in Korea on its spatial balance.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 홍성희, "지역의 대학이 지역경제에 미치는 영향" 2003

2 이춘근, "지역산업연관분석론" 학문사 2006

3 임승달, "지방대학이 지역발전에 미치는 효과" 24 : 1989

4 차대규, "지방대학이 지역경제에서 차지하는 역할과 영향에 관한 연구" 1 (1): 255-282, 2003

5 권영섭, "서울소재대학 지방분교가 지역발전에 미치는 효과에 관한 연구" 8 : 1992

6 강광하, "산업연관분석론" 연암사 2000

7 한국은행, "산업연관분석 해설" 한국은행 2014

8 이시영, "동국대 경주캠퍼스가 지역경제에 미치는 영향" 1999

9 황규선, "대학이 지역경제에 미치는 영향" 강원발전연구원 2007

10 김석중, "강원지역 산업연관분석 연구" 강원개발연구원 2000

11 Daranee, B., "The impact of the growth center on regional area: A case study in the north of Thailand" Asian Institute of Technology 1976

12 Steinacker, A., "The economic effect of urban colleges on their surrounding communities" 42 : 1161-1175, 2005

13 Felsenstein, D., "The University in the metropolitan Arena: Impacts and public policy implicationsd" 33 : 1565-1580, 1996

14 Harris, R. I. D., "The Impacts of the University of Portsmouth on the Local Economy" 34 : 605-626, 1997

15 Mankiw, N. G., "The Growth of Nations" 1 (1): 275-310, 1995

16 Barro, R., "Techonological Diffusion, Convergence, and Growth" 2 (2): 1-26, 1997

17 Lucas, R. E., "On the Mechanics of Economic Development" 22 : 3-42, 1989

18 Becker, G., "Human Capital: a Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education" Columbia University Press 1975

19 교육부, "2015 년 대학 구조개혁 평가 기본계획" 2014

20 상지대학교 부속한방병원, "2011 년도 결산보고서" 2012

21 상지대학교, "2011 년도 결산보고서" 2012

22 한국은행, "2005 년 지역산업연관표"

23 한국은행, "2005 년 산업연관표"

24 한국은행, "2003 년 지역산업연관표"