미국 무역정책의 진로 = The Direction of U.S. Trade Policy: Economics, Politics, and Governance

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 논문은 지난 20여 년 간 미국 무역정책의 변화를 추적한다. NAFTA와 WTO의 성공 이후 클린턴 행정부는 무역정책에 있어서 어떠한 주도권도 행사하지 않았다. 부시 행정부 역시 도하 라운드가 교착 상태에 빠진 가운데 10여 개 소국들과 자유무역협정을 맺는 “경쟁적 개방화‘ 정책만을 추진했다. 금융 위기 속에 출범한 오바마 행정부는 비록 보호주의로 빠져들지는 않았으나 TPP와 같은 거대 지역주의의 성공적 타결만을 기대하고 있다. 미국 무역정책의 이러한 변화를 이 글은 세 가지 요소로 설명한다. 첫째, 미국 경제의 세계화와 공급망 무역. 둘째, 미국 국내 무역정치의 변화와 갈등적 이슈의 변화. 셋째, WTO의 거버넌스의 변화와 BICs의 영향력 증대. 분석 결과, 미국 무역정책이 다자주의로부터 지역주의로, 시장 접근과 같은 기존 이슈에서 공급망 무역과 무역의 사회적 책임과 같은 새로운 이슈 중심으로 변화해 나갈 것으로 전망한다.

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper traces the changing paths of U.S. trade policies for the last 20 years. After the successes of NAFTA, WTO, and China PNTR, the Clinton administration did not pursue a major initiative in trade area, leaving DDR deadlocked. The Bush administration, too, could not take any further steps in the multilateral negotiations, thereby resorting to “competitive liberalization” with more than a dozen small economies. In the midst of a financial crisis, the Obama administration has not turnedto recession protectionism, yet just hoping to conclude mega-regionalism such as TPP and TTIP. I sort out three factors to explain this path and to assess future direction of U.S. trade policy: the changing nature of U.S. economy and trade; the polarized U.S. trade politics and the demands coming out of it; the increased vulnerability of WTO governance to the demands from developing countries such as BICs. I will show that all three factors lead U.S. trade policy to certain directions away from multilateralism to regionalism; away from such conventional issues as market access to supply-chain trade issues and social responsibility issues.

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