It is expected that there will be major changes in the educational environment centered on schools with the number of students rapidly decreasing recently in Korea. The main purpose of this study is to conduct enrollment projections for elementary sch...
It is expected that there will be major changes in the educational environment centered on schools with the number of students rapidly decreasing recently in Korea. The main purpose of this study is to conduct enrollment projections for elementary schools at the small area and individual school level and analyze spatial patterns of change and their potential impact using Gyeongsangbuk-do as a case. To this end, we first established methods for school enrollment projections at the individual school level and analyzed its applicability based on empirical data. As a result, the cohort-component method, commonly used in (sub) regional population projections, was found to be superior to other methods even at the individual school level, but its applicability was lower than that at the regional level. Next, the number of pupils from 2024 to 2029 was projected at the level of sub-regional districts (si-gun) and individual schools using the cohort-component method. The result of projection at si-gun level indicated that the number of elementary school students is expected to decrease by about 37% in the entire region, but the rate of decline would be higher in rural (gun) areas, especially with a highly shrinking population of school-age. The analysis of school-level projection showed that the likelihood of closure would increase in many schools, mainly in mountainous and rural areas.
In this case, these areas would see a decline in the educational environment, including lowered accessibility to schools, an increase in isolated schools, and the emergence of large areas where schools are absent.