엔트로피 분석 방법론을 통한 ICT 분야 이머징 테크 도출 = Identifying Emerging Technologies in the ICT Sector through Entropy-Analysis Approach

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is considered a core technology that forms the foundation for future military operations and strategic planning in the defense. Predicting and early acquisition of emerging technologies in the ICT sector are deemed crucial. Traditionally, the identification of emerging technologies has relied on the expertise and intuition of professionals, introducing inherent limitations associated with subjective judgments. In this study, we employ big data and embedding techniques to identify emerging technologies in the ICT sector. To accomplish this, we collected information from 2,432,658 ICT-related papers published between 1953 and May 2023, identifying 36,703 technical keywords. Subsequently, we applied Word2Vec to generate vectors for each keyword. Utilizing the similarity of these vector values as a metric, we clustered technologies by year, identifying technological trajectories and antecedent-descendant relationships between technology clusters. Calculating entropy for each technological trajectory, we selected 383 trajectories that exhibited a consistent increase in entropy from 2021. Among these, we identified the top 12 technologies with the highest entropy increase as emerging technologies in the ICT sector. The methodology proposed in this study not only serves as a tool for identifying promising emerging technologies in the ICT sector but also demonstrates its applicability in identifying emerging technologies in other sectors. The methodology and results presented in this research are anticipated to serve as important tools for guiding the direction of future defense technology development.