후보자의 미소와 득표율의 관계 : 제1~7회 지방선거 시군구 단체장 후보자들을 중심으로 = Smile to Win : How do Candidates’ Smiles Affect Election Outcomes?

국문 초록 (Abstract)

후보자의 외모는 유권자의 선택에 어떤 영향을 미치는가? 제한된 인지적 능력으로 인해 유권자는 투표 결정 과정에서 다양한 휴리스틱(heuristic)에 의존한다. 미국을 비롯한 여러 국가를 대상으로 한 선행연구들에 따르면 미소를 포함한 후보자의 외모는 유권자들이 흔히 사용하는 휴리스틱 중의 하나이다. 그러나 한국에서 유권자들을 대상으로 외모의 효과를 분석한 연구는 많지 않다. 본 연구 는 제1~7회 전국 지방선거 시군구 단체장 선거에 출마한 후보자 중 5,005명의 선거 벽보를 활용하 여 후보자의 미소와 후보자의 득표율의 관계에 대해 분석했다. Microsoft Azure를 이용해 산출한 미소지수와 득표율의 관계를 분석한 결과, 전혀 웃지 않는 후보자에 비해 활짝 웃고 있는 후보자의 경우 득표율이 1.5%~2.6%p 정도 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 생태학적 합리성(ecological rationality) 이론이 주장하는 바와 같이 미소 휴리스틱의 효과는 선거 환경에 따라 달라졌다. 선거경쟁도가 높거나 많은 후보가 출마하여 유권자들의 선거에 대한 관심도가 높아지는 상황에서, 미소와 득표율 간에는통계적으로 유의미한 관계가 나타나지 않았다.

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