政治关系对双边贸易关系的影响—基于中国和12个国家的面板数据的实证分析 = Research on the Influence of Political Relations Between Countries on Bilateral Trade—Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data from China and 12 Countries

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

本文基于2005年1月至2022年12月中国与12个国家的月度数据，采用贸易引力模型和面板VAR模型，实证分析国家间政治关系变动对双边贸易的影响及其持续性。研究发现: 第一，国家间政治关系的改善对双边贸易的整体发展具有显著的促进作用，而政治关系的恶化则会破坏双边贸易发展; 第二，政治关系改善对中国从外部进口贸易的正向影响显著大于对出口贸易的影响; 第三，政治关系对双边贸易的正向影响在滞后2期左右达到最大值，随后逐渐减弱，至11期左右降至0，表明其影响主要体现在短期，持续时间约为10个月; 第四，政治关系改善的贸易促进效应因地缘区域、经济发展水平和贸易类型的不同而存在显著差异。具体而言，中国与亚洲区域内国家及发达国家的政治关系改善对双边贸易发展的推动作用更强，且良好的政治关系对货物贸易的促进效应大于对服务贸易的影响。本文的研究结论为如何通过维护稳定的双边政治关系来降低贸易损失提供了政策启示，也为进一步深化中国对外开放、参与全球经济治理提供了理论支持。

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper is based on monthly data from January 2005 to December 2022 between China and 12 countries. It employs the gravity model of trade and the panel VAR model to empirically analyze the impact of changes in political relations between countries on bilateral trade and its persistence. The findings are as follows: First, the improvement of political relations between countries significantly promotes the overall development of bilateral trade, while the deterioration of political relations destroys it. Second, the positive impact of improved political relations on China’s imports from abroad is significantly greater than that on exports. Third, the positive impact of political relations on bilateral trade peaks around two periods later and gradually weakens, reaching zero around 11 periods later. This indicates that the impact is mainly short-term, lasting about 10 months. Fourth, the trade-promoting effect of improved political relations varies significantly due to differences in geographical regions, levels of economic development, and types of trade. Specifically, the improvement of political relations between China and countries within the Asian region and developed countries has a stronger promoting effect on bilateral trade. Moreover, good political relations have a greater promoting effect on goods trade than on services trade. The conclusions of this paper provide policy insights on how to reduce trade losses by maintaining stable bilateral political relations and offer theoretical support for further deepening China’s opening-up and participation in global economic governance.