多重参考点与印度对华边界政策调整(2014-2024年) = Multiple Reference Points and India’s Border Policy Adjustments to China (2014-2024)

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

中印是全球政治舞台上的重要新兴大国，迄今仍存在约2000公里的边界 线尚未划定。自2014年莫迪政府执政以来，印度挑起边界冲突的频率提高、烈度提 升，呈现冒进试探与机会主义的趋势。在不确定环境下，决策者需要兼顾底线、现 状、和目标之间的平衡。当收益优于目标时，决策者感到满意则会维持现状; 当收 益劣于底线时，决策者的最低要求得不到满足则会激进冒险; 当收益介于目标与底 线之间时，决策者采取摇摆矛盾的态度。在2017年锡金段洞朗对峙、2020年至2021 年西段加勒万河谷冲突/班公湖冲突、2022年东章对峙中，莫迪政府根据多重参考 点所框定的风险预期，动态调整对华边境政策。

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

China and India are important emerging powers on the global political stage, and there is still a 2,000-kilometer border line that has not yet been drawn. Since the Modi government came to power in 2014, India has increased its frequency and intensity of border conflicts, showing a trend of aggressive temptation and opportunism. In an uncertain environment, decision makers need to balance the bottom line, status quo, and goals. When the return is better than the goal, the decision maker will maintain the status quo when he is satisfied; when the return is worse than the bottom line, the decision maker will take a radical risk if he is not satisfied; when the return is between the goal and the bottom line, the decision maker will take a radical risk; when the return is between the goal and the bottom line, the decision maker Take a swaying and contradictory attitude. During the 2017 Sikkim section, the Galwan Valley conflict/Bangong Lake conflict in the western section from 2020 to 2021, and the East Chapter standoff in the 2022, the Modi government dynamically adjusted its border policy to China based on changes in risk expectations.