러·북 군사협력이 국제 비확산 체제와 한반도에 미치는 영향 - NPT, 안보리, NATO, 한·미동맹과의 연관성 - = Impact of North Korea-Russia Military Cooperation on the International Non-Proliferation Regimes and on the Korean Peninsula: Relating with the NPT, the UN Security Council, the NATO and the US-ROK Alliance

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

After signing a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement’ between North Korea and Russia, it is noteworthy to watch how developing North Korea-Russia military cooperation will affect the NPT regime and security order in Northeast Asia. If North Korea and Russia will exchange North Korea’s conventional weapons and Russia’s highly advanced military technology (possibly satellite/nuclear related one), it can clearly violate existing UN Security Council sanction resolutions or the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
In addition to the violation of such international norms, North Korea-Russia military cooperation possibly together with China might lead to geopolitical confrontation (North Korea-Russia-China vs South Korea-the US-Japan) in Northeast Asia. Against the backdrop, South Korea the US and Japan warned on the North Korea-Russia military cooperation which could seriously destabilize situation in the Korean Peninsula. But China seems to be not willing to join the military cooperation with North Korea and Russia to avoid risk of worsening US-China relation and North Korea’s advancing satellite (ICBM) and nuclear weapon technology in violation of relevant UNSC resolutions.
At the NATO summit held at Washington D.C. in July 2024, leaders of NATO member states expressed concern over North Korea-Russia military cooperation in terms of security connectivity between Asia and Europe, and agreed to respond to North Korea and Russia together with IP4 NATO partner countries: Rok(South Korea), Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
Under the circumstance, most realistic option which South Korea can take now is to further strengthen the US-ROK alliance based on the ‘Washington Declaration’ and the ROK-US-Japan Trilateral Security Cooperation agreed at the Camp David in 2023. To implement the ‘Washington Declaration’, it is important to get assurance of the US extended nuclear deterrence at the equivalent level of quasi-permanent deployment of strategic assets through standing mechanism of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG). By doing so, it will contribute to countering continued threat of North Korea nuclear weapons.