위성영상과 기후자료를 이용한 미중서부 옥수수와 콩의 수확량 추정 = Estimation of Corn and Soybeans Yields of the US Midwest using Satellite Imagery and Climate Dataset

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper described the estimation of corn and soybeans yields of four states in the USMidwest using time-series satellite imagery and climate dataset between 2001 and 2012. We firstconstructed a database for (1) satellite imagery acquired from Terra MODIS (Moderate ResolutionImaging Spectroradiometer) including NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), EVI (EnhancedVegetation Index), LAI (Leaf Area Index), FPAR (Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation), andGPP (Gross Primary Productivity), (2) climate dataset created by PRISM (Parameter-Elevation Regressionson Independent Slopes Model) such as precipitation and mean temperature, and (3) US yield statistics ofcorn and soybeans. Then we built OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) regression models for corn and soybeansyields between 2001 and 2010 after correlation analyses and multicollinearity tests. These regressionmodels were used in estimating the yields of 2011 and 2012. Comparisons with the US yield statisticsshowed the RMSEs (Root Mean Squared Errors) of 0.892 ton/ha and 1.095 ton/ha for corn yields in 2011and 2012 respectively, and those of 0.320 ton/ha and 0.391 ton/ha for soybeans yields. This result can bethought of as a good agreement with the in-situ statistics because the RMSEs were approximately 10%of the usual yields: 9 ton/ha for corn and 3 ton/ha for soybeans. Our approach presented a possibility forextending to more advanced statistical modeling of crop yields using satellite imagery and climate dataset.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 유승환, "수입사료 곡물의 국내생산을 위한 농업용수 및 농경지 필요량 계측" 한국국제농업개발학회 24 (24): 259-264, 2012

2 나상일, "논벼 NPP 지수를 이용한 우리나라 벼 수량 추정- MODIS 영상과 CASA 모형의 적용 -" 대한원격탐사학회 29 (29): 461-476, 2013

3 나상일, "기상요소와 MODIS NDVI를 이용한 한국형 논벼 생산량 예측모형 (KRPM)의 개발" 한국농공학회 54 (54): 141-148, 2012

4 Classen, M.M., "Water deficit effects on corn. I. grain components" 62 : 652-655, 1970

5 Vandiepen, C. A., "WOFOST: A simulation model of crop production" 5 (5): 16-24, 1989

6 Liu, H. L., "Using the DSSATCERES-Maize model to simulate crop yield and nitrogen cycling in fields under long-term continuous maize production" 89 : 313-328, 2011

7 Ministry for Food, Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, "Statistical Yearbook"

8 Ren J. Q., "Regional yield estimation for winter wheat with MODIS-NDVI data in Shandong, China," 10 : 403-413, 2008

9 Daly, C., "Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States" 28 (28): 2031-2064, 2008

10 Huete, A. R., "Overview of the radiometric and biophysical performance of the MODIS vegetation indices" 83 : 195-213, 2002

11 홍석영, "MODIS NDVI와 기상자료를 이용한 우리나라 벼 수량 추정" 대한원격탐사학회 28 (28): 509-520, 2012

12 Friedl, M. A., "MODIS Collection 5 global land cover:Algorithm refinements and characterization of new datasets" 114 : 168-182, 2010

13 Kastens, J. H., "Image masking for crop yield forecasting using AVHRR NDVI time series imagery" 99 (99): 341-356, 2005

14 USDA/FAS, "Grains: World Markets and Trade Archives" USDA/PAS 2012

15 Wu, W., "Global-scale modelling of future changes in sown areas of major crops" 208 (208): 378-390, 2007

16 Townshend, J. R. G., "Global land cover classification by remote sensing: present capabilities and future capabilities" 35 : 243-255, 1991

17 Tan, G., "Global estimation of crop productivity and the impacts of global warming by GIS and EPIC integration" 168 (168): 357-370, 2003

18 Liu, J., "GEPIC-modeling wheat yield and crop water productivity with high resolution on a global scale" 94 : 478-493, 2007

19 Wang, X.C., "Evaluation of crop yield and soil water estimates using the EPIC model for the Loess Plateau of China" 51 : 1390-1397, 2010

20 Lee, J.T., "Estimation of rice canopy leaf area index(LAI)by spectral reflectance of solar radiation in pad dy field" 42 (42): 173-181, 1997

21 Bala, S.K., "Estimation of potato yield in and around munshiganj using remote sensing NDVI data" Bangladesh university of engineering and technology, 2008

22 Zhang, Q., "Estimation of crop gross primary production(GPP): fAPARchl versus MOD15A2FPAR" 153 : 1-6, 2014

23 Vanevert, F. K., "CropSyst: A collection of object-oriented simulation models of agricultural systems" 86 (86): 325-331, 1994

24 Ferencz, C., "Crop yield estimation by satellite remote sensing" 25 (25): 4113-4149, 2004

25 Kutner, M. H., "Applied Linear Regression Models" Mc-Graw-Hill Irwin 2004

26 Doraiswamy, P. C., "Application of MODIS derived parameters for regional crop yield assessment" 97 : 192-202, 2005

27 Fu, X., "An improved indicator of simulated grassland production based on MODIS NDVI and GPP data: A case study in the Sichuan province, China" 40 : 102-108, 2014

28 Daly, C., "A statistical-topographic model for mapping climatological precipitation over mountainous terrain" 33 (33): 140-158, 1994

29 Sellers, P. J., "A simple biosphere model(SiB) for use within general circulation models" 43 : 505-531, 1986

30 Duchemin, B., "A simple algorithm for yield estimates:Evaluation for semi-arid irrigated winter wheat monitored with green leaf area index" 23 (23): 876-892, 2008

31 Allen, J.D., "A look at the remote sensing applications program of the National Agricultural Statistics Service" 6 (6): 393-409, 1990

32 Becker, R., "A generalized regression-based model for forecasting winter wheat yield in 94 Kansas and Ukraine using MODIS data" 114 (114): 1312-1323, 2010