'제2판' 급변사태론에 대한 비판적 검토 = A Critical Evaluation on the Reemergence of North Korea's Collapse Theory

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper will critically examine the North Korea's collapse theory, paying particular attention to the main positions shared by the supporters of this belief. This consists of perceptions of North Korea which also shaped Lee Myung-bak administration’s current North Korea policy and response to recent events. In addition, the issue of reunification will be discussed in line with the possible occurrence of sudden change in North Korea.


The arguments of this paper begins with the analysis of North Korea's collapse theory, which harbors misguided perception of North Korea leading to knotty policy and problematic response towards North Korea by Lee Myung-bak administration. Furthermore, the risk of reunification in case of sudden collapse will also be explored. It cannot be stressed enough on the importance of continuous and long-term efforts for reconciliation, cooperation, and peaceful coexistence to achieve reunification and resolve the divided system of the Korean peninsula. As a feasible policy alternative to achieve this goal, an upgraded version of the engagement policy is suggested.


In the core of the new engagement policy lies the building of peace regime and joint economic bloc in the Korean peninsula. In order to realize this policy, it is imperative to facilitate and secure private sector participation, including civil society and corporations. In other words, the direction of this new policy should encourage the role of the local governments and communities, by promoting ‘local participatory’ engagement policy that promote specific exchange and cooperation projects which incorporates and respects the strengths and goals of each organizations on different levels.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 구갑우, "한반도평화체제와통일" 2010

2 양문수, "한반도경제 구상: 개방적 한반도경제권의 형성, In 한반도 경제론: 새로운 발전모델을 찾아서" 창비 150-168, 2007

3 남성욱, "한반도 급변사태와 우리의 효율적 대응 방안: 경제 분야를 중심으로" 91-128, 2007

4 "한국은행 경제통계시스템"

5 정영철, "평화와통일: 다르지만다르지않은하나의과정" 2010

6 김형찬, "통일의가치와통일철학의성찰" 2010

7 이수훈, "탈냉전ㆍ세계화ㆍ지역화에 따른 동북아 질서 형성과 남북관계" 극동문제연구소 25 (25): 1-31, 2009

8 박세일, "창조적세계화론: 대한민국세계화전략" 서울대출판문화원 2010

9 강원택, "차기 대선과 대북정책, In 2011 통일의식조사 발표: 통일의식과 통일준비" 서울대 통일평화연구원 93-112, 2011

10 중앙일보, "지난해이어또스타일구긴ARF 외교"

11 정재호, "중국의부상과한반도의미래" 서울대출판문화원 2011

12 유호열, "정치 외교분야에서의북한급변사태: 유형과대응방안" 13-56, 2007

13 이수훈, "잃어버린북방: 천안함5.24 조치1년을맞아"

14 김근식, "이명박 정부의 대북정책 담론: 반(反)포용의 논리들" (39) : 81-102, 2010

15 정규섭, "외교적고립의심화, In 북한의딜레마와미래" 법문사 149-174, 2011

16 이명박, "완벽한안보로국민의안전을철통같이지키겠습니다, In 청와대라디오 인터넷 연설 16차 (6월 1일)"

17 "연합뉴스"

18 조대엽, "시민사회통일론의전망" 2010

19 이수훈, "세계체제, 동북아, 한반도" 아르케 2004

20 유호열, "새로운 대북정책 모색: 포용정책에서 레짐 체인지로" (50) : 100-123, 2011

21 백낙청, "분단체제의인식을위하여: 본지77호의특집을중심으로" (78) : 288-309, 1992

22 안병직, "북한의붕괴와재건" (44) : 123-136, 2009

23 박재규, "북한의딜레마와미래" 법문사 2011

24 박관용, "북한의급변사태와우리의대응" 한울 2007

25 이상근, "북한붕괴론의 어제와 오늘: 1990년대와 2000년대의 북한붕괴론에대한 평가" 12 (12): 93-133, 2008

26 백승주, "북한급변사태시군사차원대비방향" 57-90, 2007

27 양문수, "북한경제의시장화: 양태 성격 메커니즘 함의" 한울 2010

28 김흥규, "미 중전략 경제대화분석: 한반도현안에대한함의와더불어, In 주요국제문제분석" 외교안보연구원 2009

29 "매일경제"

30 이남주, "동북아경제협력과한반도경제" 2010

31 이수정, "다문화주의와 통일담론" 2010

32 박명규, "남북관계와비대칭적분단국체제론" (창간) : 3-28, 2009

33 김 진, "국민이3일만참아주면…"

34 정태헌, "국망 부른 17세기 북벌론, 21세기에 환생하다" 2010

35 "경향신문"

36 백낙청, "‘포용정책2.0’을향하여" (147) : 71-94, 2010

37 Stares, Paul B, "Preparing for Sudden Change in NorthKorea" Council on ForeignRelations 2009

38 Park, Geun-hye, "A New Kind of Korea: Building Trust Between Seouland Pyongyang" 90 (90): 2011

39 이명박, "<제65주년광복절경축사> 함께가는국민, 더큰대한민국" 청와대뉴스

40 서울대통일평화연구원, "2011 통일의식조사발표: 통일의식과통일준비" 서울대 통일평화연구원 2011