한국(韓國)의 인구변화(人口變化)와 경제발전(經濟發展) 경제(經濟)모델을 중심(中心)으로 = Population Change and Economic Development in Korea

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The purposes of this paper are to formulate an economic-demographic growth model for Korea and to analyse the policy impacts on population change and economic development. It is hoped that the result of this study would contribute to formulating a more efficient economic- demographic policy.
An economic-demographic growth model for Korea is formulated on the basis of the Suits- Mason model and other relevant models. The equations which explain the level of economic variables in the model are estimate by econometric methods using time-series data.
Four variables are selected as policy variables. They are total fertility rate (TFR), marginal growth capital formation rate (MGCFR), high school education rate of the working age population (RHE), and emigration rate (EMR). A each different scenario is assigned to each of these variables, and the future levels of economic and demographic variables under these scenarios are calculated using simulation methods. Then, economic gains from each policy are computed to provide a basis for appraising alternative policies.
The major findings from this study are as follows. The target fertility control policy is efficient in reducing the population growth rate and in increasing the GNP growth rate. The investment policy and education policy contribute to a rapid economic growth by increasing both capital stock and human capital. The emigration policy has a direct significant effect on the size of population, but has an insignificant effect on economic growth. If the policy mix of the fertility control policy and the investment policy is used, the economic gain will be greater than the sum of the economic gains from each policy. That indicates that syneric effect may be obtained by combining appropriate policies. In conclusion, a proper mix of various policies is essential to obtain a balanced and rapid economic growth through syneric effects.