China`s Changing Security Environment: Implications for Northeast Asia Security = China`s Changing Security Environment: Implications for Northeast Asia Security

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The future security environment in Northeast Asia will be defined, in large part, by the nature of China`s interaction with its key neighbors-Japan, Russia, North and South Korea, and the US. Today, many trends are positive. Driven by its desire for economic cooperation-and the recognition that eco- nomic development requires a stable security environment4hina has made a concerted effort to improve relations region-wide. But, what will China be like at the turn of this century? Will it be a prosperous, stable member of the community of nations, committed to political, economic, and security co- operation with its neighbors? Or, will it be a sprawling, undisciplined (perhaps even fragmented) giant, troubling to the rest of the world? Or, as is more likely, if it falls somewhere in between, toward which direction is it heading? It is, of course, too soon to make specific predictions. Those most respon- sible for charting China`s future course have yet to be fully ordained and even a leadership committed to reform will face immense challenges. Should economic reform succeed, there is still no guarantee that a prosperous, stable China will necessarily be a cooperative or benign one, especially if political liberalization does not follow. While China`s future helmsmen will do the steering, there is a great deal that the United States and China`s Northeast Asian neighbors can d w r , in some cases, stop doing-in order to influence the ultimate direction that will be chosen. First and foremost is constructive engagement today, along lines that encourage those positive trends that support the more pragmatic, forward-thinking Chinese leadership contenders. Foreign investment in China should be encouraged, MFN should be depoliticized and extended without human rights or other non-trade-related conditions, and China should be encouraged to enter GATT and other international fora. Better coordina- tion is needed between the United States and China`s more immediate neigh- bors (especially Japan) to achieve a greater coincidence of views regarding such concepts as democratic liberalization and the promotion of universal basic human rights, since a multilateral (versus solely US-driven) approach is more likely, over time, to produce positive result. For its part, China must vigorously pursue reform programs already on the books and further develop and then implement strict enforcement measures to see them through. To ease its neighbors` concerns, China must increase the transparency of its military budgets, strategy, and weapons acquistion plans. Greater military-to-military dialogue and other confidence-building measures are needed. China also needs to demonstrate greater adherence to the UN Basic Declaration of Human Rights. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council and as a great power that demands equal and fair treatment from others, China is obligated to hold itself to a higher standard than is currently being evidenced. Finally, more bilateral and especially multlateral dialogue is needed across the political, economic, and security spectrum to create greater regional confidence and awareness. As we approach the twenty-first century, it seems clear that a Northeast Asia in which all key players willingly stress cooperation and jointly attempt to manage the inevitable challenges and competition that lie ahead is in everyone`s best political, economic, and security interests. The key to realize this type of future is enhanced dialogue aimed at developing mutual under- standing and building greater confidence, trust, and transparency within the region.