Prospects for East Asian Monetary Cooperation : Needs, Feasibility and Road Map

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The East Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the launch of the euro in 1999 have stirred much interest in regional monetary cooperation in East Asia. Moreover, with further cooperation of real sector, it in turn requires a comparatively advanced financial sector. Given current financial environment, it is yet an undecided question of how to find a feasible modality to form monetary integration in East Asia. This paper attempts to answer this question by analyzing the needs, feasibility as well as the road map in consistence with main principle of regional monetary cooperation along with reviewing financial issues relevant to monetary cooperation in East Asia. Although monetary integration in East Asia needs a long process that requires gradually accelerating the regional financial cooperation, this paper agrees that Asian Currency Unit (ACU) will be a feasible approach to form the Asian Monetary Union (AMU). However, due to the intrinsic weakness of ACU, it necessitates the insurance from Asian Monetary Fund (AMF) to reach the monetary integration. Hence, AMF+ACU have been argued to offer the tools to ultimately support the establishment of AMU. By doing so, this paper suggests that it would go through two periods (short and long-term agendas) to realize the AMU.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• Abstract
• Ⅰ. Introduction 1
• Ⅱ. Needs of Monetary Cooperation in East Asia 4
• 1. Lessons from East Asian Financial Crisis in 1997～1998 4
• (1) Contagious Currency Crisis 4
• (2) Incapability of International Economic Organization 7
• 2. What kind of Monetary Cooperation is Desirable? 9
• (1) Experience from European Monetary Union 9
• (2) Optimal Exchange Rate Regime 11
• Ⅲ. Feasibility of Monetary Cooperation in East Asia 20
• 1.Feasibility of Asian Monetary Fun 21
• (1)Crisis Defense & Emergency Aid Mechanism 21
• (2)Challenges for Asian Monetary Fund 22
• 2. Feasibility of a Monetary Union in East Asia 24
• (1) Optimum Currency Area Criteria 24
• (2) Is East Asia an Optimum Currency Area? 25
• (3) Challenges for Asian Monetary Union 28
• Ⅳ. Road Map toward Monetary Integration in East Asia 32
• 1.Short-term Agenda:from Chiang Mai Initiative to Asian Monetary Fund 32
• (1) Chiang Mai Initiative 32
• (2) Asian Monetary Fund 36
• 2. Long-term Agenda:From Asian Currency Unit to Asian Monetary Union 40
• (1) Asian Monetary Union 41
• (2) Asian Currency Unit 44
• Ⅴ. Conclusion 50
• References 53