한반도에 영향을 주는 태풍의 접근 진단 지수 개발 = Development of a Diagnostic Index on the Approach of Typhoon Affecting Korean Peninsula

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This study has developed the index for diagnosis on possibility that typhoons (TYs) affect Korea. This index is closely related to the strength of the western North Pacific high (WNPH), which is calculated as a difference in meridional wind between at the highest correlation area (around Korea) and at the lowest correlation area (sea southeast of Japan) through a correlation analysis between TC frequency that affects Korea and 500 hPa meridional wind. In low frequency years that selected from Korea affecting TC index, anomalous northeasterly is strengthened from Korea to the South China Sea because the center of anomalous anticyclonic circulation is located to northwest of Korea. Thus, TCs tend to move westward from the sea east of the Philippines to the mainland China. On the other hand, in high frequency years, anomalous southwesterly serves as steering flow that more TCs move toward Korea because the center of anomalous anticyclonic circulation is located to sea east of Japan. Consequently, this study suggests that if this index is calculated using real time 500 hPa meridional winds that forecasted by dynamic models during the movement of TCs, the possibility that TCs approach Korea can be diagnosed in real time.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

이 연구는 우리나라 영향 태풍을 먼저 분류하고, 이후 경유하게 될 가능성을 진단하는 지수를 개발하였다. 우리나라 영향 태풍의 접근 진단 지수는 여름철에 북서태평양 고기압의 서쪽 가장자리의 발달강도를 표현하는 지수로서, 우리나라 영향 태풍의 빈도와 남북류 (500-hPa)의 강도사이의 상관관계에서 나타나는 양의 최대 상관지역(우리나라 부근)과 음의 최대 상관지역(일본 남동쪽 해상)간의 남북류의 속도 차이로 계산된다. 우리나라 영향 태풍 진단 지수로 추출된 우리나라 영향 태풍의 저빈도 해에는, 고기압성 순환 아노말리의 중심이 우리나라 북서쪽에 위치하기 때문에 우리나라로부터 중국 동해안과 남중국해까지 북동류의 성분이 강화되고, 태풍은 이에 따라 필리핀 동쪽해상으로부터 중국 동해안 및 중국내륙 쪽으로 서편하는 경향을 보였다. 반면에 고빈도 해에는 고기압성 순환 아노말리의 중심이 일본 동쪽해상에 위치하기 때문에 동중국해 및 우리나라, 일본에서 유도된 남서풍이 더 많은 태풍을 우리나라 영역으로 접근시켰다. 결과적으로 태풍의 북상 동안 역학모델로부터 실시간으로 예측된 500 hPa 남북류를 이용하여 이 지수를 산출하면태풍의 우리나라 접근 가능성을 진단할 수 있음을 이 연구는 제안한다.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 최기선, "인공신경망 기법을 이용한 태풍 강도 및 진로 예측" 한국지구과학회 30 (30): 294-304, 2009

2 최기선, "북극진동의 위상에 따른 한국 부근에서의 태풍 활동 변화" 한국기상학회 20 (20): 387-398, 2011

3 Fogarty, E.A, "Variations in typhoon landfall over China" 23 : 665-677, 2006

4 Klotzbach, P.J, "Upgraded 6-11- month prediction of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity" 19 : 917-934, 2004

5 Korea Meteorological Administration, "Typhoon White Book" Korea Meteorological Administration 261-, 1996

6 Gray, W.M, "Tropical cyclone genesis in the western North Pacific" 55 : 465-482, 1977

7 Chia, H.H, "The interannual variability in the genesis location of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific" 15 : 2934-2944, 2002

8 Emanuel, K.A, "The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate" 326 : 483-485, 1987

9 Kalnay, E, "The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project" 77 : 437-471, 1996

10 Kistler, R, "The NCEP-NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly Means CD-ROM and Documentation" 82 : 247-268, 2001

11 Neumann, C.J, "Statistical prediction of tropical storm motion over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea" 29 : 487-500, 1978

12 Neumann, C.J, "Statistical prediction of tropical cyclone motion over the southwest Indian Ocean" 104 : 76-85, 1976

13 Leftwich, P.W, "Statistical guidance on the prediction of eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone motion. Part 2" NOAA 15-, 1977

14 최기선, "Relationship between Korean Peninsula Landfalling Tropical Cyclones and Interannual Climate Variabilities" 한국지구과학회 29 (29): 375-385, 2008

15 Gray, W.M, "Predicting Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 June" 9 : 103-115, 1994

16 Gray, W.M, "Predicting Atlantic seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August" 8 : 73-85, 1993

17 Gray, W.M, "Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance" 7 : 440-455, 1992

18 Choi, K.S, "Interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone making landfall over the Korean Peninsula" JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD 30 : 1472-1483, 2010

19 Emanuel, K.A, "Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years" 436 : 686-688, 2005

20 Gray, W.M, "Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation, in Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans" Royal Meteorological Society 155-218, 1979

21 Aberson, S.M, "Five-day tropical cyclone track forecasts in the North Atlantic basin" 13 : 1005-1015, 1998

22 Fraedrich, K, "Estimates of cyclone track predictability. I: Tropical cyclones in the Australian region" 115 : 79-92, 1989

23 Ki-Seon Choi, "Climatological Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall over the Korean Peninsula" 한국기상학회 43 (43): 97-109, 2007

24 Bell, G.D, "Climate assessment for 1999" 81 : 1328-, 2000

25 Klotzbach, P.J, "Causes of the unusually destructive 2004 Atlantic basin hurricane season" 87 : 1325-1333, 2006

26 Morison, R.P, "Australian REID CLIPER" American Meteorological Society 494-495, 2000

27 Landsea, C.W, "Atlantic basin hurricanes: Indices of climatic changes" 42 : 89-129, 1999

28 DeMaria, M, "An updated Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) for the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins" 14 : 326-337, 1999

29 Neumann, C.J, "An alternate to the HURRAN tropical cyclone forecast system" NOAA 32-, 1972

30 Emanuel, K.A, "An air-sea interaction theory for tropical cyclones. Part 1: Steady-state maintenance" 43 : 585-604, 1986

31 Xu, Y, "A statistical model for the prediction of western North Pacific tropical cyclone motion (WPCLPR)" NOAA 30-, 1985

32 최기선, "A simple introduction of extratropical transition of Tropical Cyclone (TC) and a case study on the latest three TCs : Shanshan (0613), Yaki (0614), and Soulik (0618)" 한국지구과학회 28 (28): 947-956, 2007

33 Sall, S.M, "A cyclogenesis index for tropical Atlantic off the African coasts" 79 : 123-147, 2006