RUSSIA AND GREAT-POWER POLITICS Russia in Central Asia: The Dynamics of Great-Power Politics in a Volatile Region

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

With US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forcespoised for a major drawdown from Afghanistan in 2014, and Russiadetermined to strengthen its influence in the “near abroad,” newuncertainties face the volatile post-Soviet Central Asian states.
Changing power alignments in the region will pose new challengesfor the United States, Russia, China, and the European Union. Thisarticle assesses the evolving direction of great-power interactionand influence in Central Asia, focusing on Moscow’s growing assertivenessin the region. Using a neoclassical realist framework, Iargue that geographic, historical, and cultural ties; a military presence;and developing economic institutions favor Russia over theshort term, although China is best poised to expand regional influenceover the long run. US war weariness, budget constraints, anddistance suggest that—barring new major terrorist threats emanatingfrom the region—Washington’s presence and influence willgradually diminish.

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