우루과이 라운드 ( UR ) 가 밤 재배농가에 미치는 영향 = The Effect of UR on Chestnut Growers

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Urguag Round(UR) has lots of implication in the forest product market as well as the other sectors of the economy. Chestnut, one of the major forest product in Korea, would be affected be free trade resulting from the agreement on UR. To establish effective policy measures dealing with negative effects of free trade, of any, the effect of UR on producers should be figured out. In this contest, the purposes of this study are Eli estimating the demand, supply- and its price functions of this market and t21 forecasting the effect of UR on growers. Using econometric method, demand, supply and price function of this market are estimated. The total amount of yearly money loss of growers due to free trade from 1992 to 2001 are estimated for four different scenarios. In each scenario, it is assumed that the tariffication reduction is 30%. 40%, 50% and 90%. Yearly money loss of chestnut growers at the year 2001 are forecasted such as 14 billion won, 18 billion won, 24 billion won and 25 billion won for the rate of tariffication reduction of 30%, 40%. 50%, and 90%. respectively.