무역의 다양성과 교역상대국이 자국의 경제성장에 미친 영향 = The Impact of Trade Diversity and Trading Partners on Domestic Economic Growth

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

This paper studies the effects of trade diversity and trading partners on domestic economic growth for 69 countries during the period 1970~2000. We develop the index to measure trade diversity by using Herfindahl index and intra-industry trade index, and also calculate weighted average growth rate of trading partners using bilateral trade volume as weights. In addition, the variables, such as growth rate of investment, rate of inflation, and openness are included in regression analysis. The results show that trade affects economic growth; the economic growth rates are high in countries with high openness, the more commodity variety of exports and imports, the more variety of trading partners, and the high economic growth of trading partners. This paper suggests policy implications that we have to diversify trading commodities and trading partners as well as increase trade volume in order to maximize the positive effects of trade on economic growth.

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 무역의 다양성과 교역상대국의 경제환경이 자국의 경제성장에 미치는 영향을 1970~2000년 기간에 대한 69개국 자료를 이용하여 분석하고 있다. 다양성을 측정할 수 있는 지표를 집중도지수와 산업내 무역지수 등을 이용하여 추계하고, 교역상대국의 경제성장을 무역량으로 가중평균한 값으로 추계하였다. 이 변수들 이외에도 투자증가율, 인플레이션율, 개방도 변수를 회귀분석에 포함하였다. 분석결과, 무역은 경제성장에 유의한 영향을 미치고 있다. 즉 개방도가 높은 국가, 수출입상품의 다양성이 높은 국가, 교역상대국이 다양한 국가, 그리고 상대국의 경제성장이 빠른 국가에서 더 빠른 경제성장을 달성하였다. 본 연구는 개방을 통한 무역량 확대만이 아니라 수출입상품의 다양성과 교역상대국의 다양성을 확대하는 것이 무역으로부터 얻어지는 성장의 효과를 높이는 데 중요하다는 정책적 시사점을 제시한다.

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