R&D 성과창출 성공확률 예측모형 추정 및 민감도 실험설계분석 방법론 연구 = A Methodological Study of Prediction Model Estimation for R&D Performance Creation Success Probability and Design of Experiments and Analysis for Sensitivity

국문 초록 (Abstract)

본 연구는 대한민국 정부의 기술혁신형 국가연구개발사업 중 하나인 “지식경제기술혁신사 업”을 대상으로 R&D 성과창출 성공확률의 예측모형을 추정하고, 추정된 예측모형의 민감도 검토를 위한 실험설계분석을 실시한다. 분석 대상 R&D 주관기관 유형은 “대기업”, “중소기 업”, 두 가지 영리기관이며, “국가R&D사업관리서비스”에 매년 등록 관리되는 여섯 가지 핵 심 R&D 성과 항목 중 특히, 특허등록, 매출액, 두 가지를 분석 대상으로 선정한다. 또한, 타 기관 간 R&D 협력 여부도 영향요인으로 본 연구에 포함한다. 일반적인 R&D 논리모형에 기 초하여 예측모형을 수립하며, 분석 샘플 n = 1,929개 종료 R&D 과제를 대상으로 분석 샘플 특성을 고려한 로짓 (Logit) 회귀분석을 실시한다. 실증분석 결과를 요약하면, 첫째, 정부지원 금액 대비 성과창출 성공확률의 양 (+)의 상관성은 확인되나, 그 영향력은 특허등록과 같은 단기적, 기술적 산출에서 매출액과 같은 중기적, 경제적 결과로 진행될수록 감소하였다. 둘째, 매출액 성과창출 여부는 직전 단계에 위치한 특허등록 창출 여부에 의존적임이 확인되었다. 셋째, “단독 R&D”와 비교할 때 “협력 R&D”에서 특허등록, 매출액 성과창출 성공확률이 더 높고, “대기업”보다 “중소기업”의 매출액 성과창출 성공확률이 더 높았다. 넷째, 민감도 실험 설계분석을 통해, 정부지원금액이 증가할수록 특허등록 성과창출 성공확률은 S자형 비선형 성장곡선 형태의 증가 추세를 명확히 보인 반면, 매출액 성과창출 성공확률은 상대적으로 선 형에 근사한 둔감한 증가 추세를 보였다. 본 연구가 제안하는 정책적 함의로서, 각 R&D 과 제별 순차적인 성과창출 유도, 타 기관 간 R&D 협력 활성화, 중소기업 친화적인 국가연구개 발사업의 기획 전개 관리 등이 바람직하다고 판단된다. 또한, 정부지원금액 증액을 통해 성 취 가능한 R&D 성과 항목은 한정적일 수 있으므로, 각 R&D 과제별 정부지원금액 규모의 적절성을 세밀히 검토하는 절차가 향후 좀 더 강화될 필요가 있다고 판단된다.

목차 (Table of Contents)

• 요약
• Ⅰ. 서론
• Ⅱ. 연구모형
• Ⅲ. 분석자료
• Ⅳ. 로짓분석
• 4.1 모형구조
• 4.2 모형추정
• 4.3 모형진단
• Ⅴ. 민감도 실험설계분석
• 5.1 실험설계
• 5.2 실험분석
• Ⅵ. 종합
• 참고문헌
• Abstract

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