Diffusion Patterns of Mobile Telecommunications Services in the European Countries

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

Mobile telecom markets have dramatically increased in the last decade due to a remarkable subscriber base growth. The diffusion patterns of the services are a major concern for mobile carriers preparing those new services. We assume that the diffusion patterns of those services will be similar to those of previous mobile services, and discovering the diffusion patterns of those services is an essential task of mobile carriers for preparing the next mobile services. This study attempts to classify some groups which show similar diffusion patterns of mobile services. Using a traditional diffusion model, this study estimates diffusion patterns of twenty five western European countries. The estimation is based on the monthly penetration ratio of those countries from 1993 to 2004. Based on the estimation, the cluster analysis discovers that there are two different countries groups in terms of mobile diffusion pattern: high imitation countries and low imitation countries. The critical point for classifying the two groups in terms of imitation effect was 0.90. The results provide the basis for developing a causal relationship model which explains the different diffusion pattern of mobile services and planning new networks for the advanced mobile services.

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