How (Un)affordable is housing in developing Asia?

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

While housing affordability is well documented for developed countries, we still lack systematic analyses and cross-city comparisons for developing countries. This paper aims to contribute to the relevant literature by comparatively analyzing city-level housing unaffordability of 211 cities in 27 developing countries located in the Asia-Pacific region. The average price-to-income ratio (PIR) for our sample is above 12.5, which indicates that housing is severely unaffordable for the large majority of urban dwellers in developing Asia. Using a regression-based approach, we find evidence that the housing unaffordability tends to increase for cities with larger population and lower household income. Our results also demonstrate that the extent of housing unaffordability in developing Asia is substantially higher compared with cities in developed countries. Potential reasons include slower supply responses, lower household income spent on housing, relatively higher construction costs, rigid land use regulations and inefficient planning systems. If housing remains out of reach for in-migrants and newly formed households in most existing urban areas of developing countries, their potential of further urbanization and economic growth is likely to be undermined.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 United Nations, "World Economic Situation Prospects"

2 Chauvin, J. P., "What is different about urbanization in rich and poor countries? Cities in Brazil, China, India and the United States" 98 : 17-49, 2017

3 Roback, J., "Wages, rents, and the quality of life" 90 (90): 1257-1278, 1982

4 Seitz, W., "Urbanization in Kazakhstan: Desirable cities, unaffordable housing, and the missing rental market"

5 Dasgupta, B., "Urbanization and Housing Investment" World Bank 2014

6 Lin, C. C., "Urban land policy and housing in an endogenously growing monocentric city" 34 (34): 241-261, 2004

7 Dowall, D. E., "Urban land and housing markets in the Punjab, Pakistan" 46 (46): 2277-2300, 2009

8 Bajwa, I. U., "Urban housing development in Pakistan; A case study of Lahore metropolitan area" 29 : 64-73, 2000

9 Glaeser, E., "Urban economics for the developing world : An introduction" 98 : 1-5, 2017

10 Baum-Snow, Nathaniel, "Understanding the city size wage Gap" 79 (79): 88-127, 2012

11 Cruz, P., "Transaction costs and housing affordability in Asia" 11 (11): 128-150, 2008

12 Rose, L. A., "Topographical constraints and urban land supply indexes" 26 (26): 335-347, 1989

13 Ram, P., "The provision of affordable housing in India : Are commercial developers interested" 55 : 100-108, 2016

14 Saiz, A., "The geographic determinants of housing supply" 125 (125): 1253-1296, 2010

15 Quigley, J. M., "The effects of land use regulation on the price of housing:What do we know? What can we learn?" 8 (8): 69-137, 2005

16 Glaeser, E., "The economic implications of housing supply" 32 (32): 3-30, 2018

17 Chaney, T., "The collateral channel : How real estate shocks affect coorporate investment" 102 (102): 2381-2409, 2012

18 UN Habitat, "The State of the World’s Cities Report 2001" UN Habitat 2001

19 Gyourko, J., "Superstar cities" 5 (5): 167-199, 2013

20 Kumar, P., "Slums in India : Results from census, 2011" 3 (3): 124-128, 2016

21 Quigley, J. M., "Regulation and the high cost of housing in California" 95 (95): 323-328, 2005

22 Malik, S., "Rapid urbanization : Problems and Challenges for adequate housing in Pakistan" 2 (2): 87-110, 2014

23 Behrens, K., "Productive cities : Sorting, selection, and agglomeration" 122 (122): 507-553, 2014

24 United Nations, "Population Facts: The speed of urbanization around the world. UNDESA"

25 Lall, S. V., "Planning, Connecting, and financing cities—Now : Priorities for city Leaders" World Bank Publications 2013

26 Malpezzi, S., "New place-to-place housing price indexes for US metropolitan areas, and their determinants" 26 (26): 235-274, 1998

27 Green, R. K., "Metropolitan-specific estimates of the price elasticity of supply of housing, and their sources" 95 (95): 334-339, 2005

28 Brueckner, J., "Measuring welfare gains from relaxation of land-use restrictions : The case of India’s building-height limits" 42 : 1061-1067, 2012

29 Roca, J. D. L., "Learning by working in big cities" 84 (84): 106-142, 2017

30 Kamruzzaman, Md., "Housing for the middle income Group in Dhaka, Bangladesh" 73 (73): 947-954, 2008

31 Chen, J., "Housing finance, economic development and housing affordability in China: A case study of Shanghai" 2006

32 Lozano, N., "Housing demand in urban Africa" The World Bank 2014

33 Hsieh, C. T., "Housing constraints and spatial misallocation" 11 (11): 1-39, 2019

34 Collier, P., "Housing and urbanization in Africa: Unleashing a formal market process" 2014

35 Galster, G., "Housing affordability: A Framing, Synthesis of research and policy, and future directions"

36 Rosenthal, S. S., "Handbook of regional and urban economics (Vol. 4)" Elsevier 2119-2171, 2004

37 Brueckner, J. K., "Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, 5" 1399-1455, 2014

38 Bolton, K., "Growing unequal? Changes in the distribution of earnings across Canadian cities" 49 (49): 1377-1396, 2012

39 Gaspar, R., "Greater Baku: Housing Sector Diagnostic" World Bank Group 2016

40 Mathema, A., "Georgia Housing" 2015

41 United Nations, "Forest Products Annual Market Review 2018-2019"

42 Karsten, L., "Family gentrifiers : Challenging the city as a place simultaneously to build a career and to raise children" 40 (40): 2573-2584, 2003

43 Gandhi, S., "Economics of affordable housing in Indian cities : The case of Mumbai" 3 : 221-235, 2012

44 Skaburskis, A., "Decomposing Canada’s growing housing affordability problem: Do city differences matter?" 41 (41): 117-149, 2004

45 Rosen, S., "Current issues in urban Economics" Johns Hopkins Univ. Press 391-429, 1979

46 Regmi, A., "Cross-country analysis of food consumption patterns" 1422 : 14-22, 2001

47 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), "Country Profiles on the Housing Sector: Tajikistan (2011)"

48 United Nations Economic Commission for Europe(UNECE), "Country Profiles on the Housing Sector: Republic of Kazakhstan"

49 Lau, K. M., "Commercial housing affordability in Beijing 1992-2001" Centre for China Urban and Regional Studies and Department of Geography, Hong Kong University 2004

50 United Nations, "Charting the Progress of Populations"

51 Asian Development Bank, "Asian Development Bank Outlook, Theme Chapter:Urbanization"

52 Stepanyan, H., "Armenia Housing Study" Habitat for Humanity

53 Kritayanavaj, B., "Affordable housing in Thailand" 6 (6): 32-43, 2012

54 UN Habitat, "Affordable Land and Housing in Asia"

55 Asian Productivity Organization, "APO Productivity Databook 2018"

56 Demographia, "15th annual demographia international housing affordability survey" Demographia 2019