북한의 핵능력 고도화와 국가안보 옵션 = South Korea’s Options for Countering the Growing North Korean Nuclear Threat

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

North Korea’s nuclear weapons, initially developed to guarantee regime survival, became a source of leverage in diplomatic negotiations, and have evolved to the point of being an existential threat to the security of the Republic of Korea(South Korea). If current trends continue, by 2030, North Korea is forecast to have as many as between 166 and 300 nuclear warheads. Further, by successfully testing a hydrogen bomb and an intercontinental ballistic missile in 2017, it has significantly weakened U.S. extended deterrence. What is more, according to polling by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs in 2023, 53% of Republican voters oppose U.S. military defense of South Korea in the event of an invasion by North Korea. Hence, if the GOP wins the Presidential election in November 2024, U.S. determination to protect South Korea is expected to weaken.
In such circumstances, in the medium and long run, the South Korean government needs to pursue its own nuclear weapons program. However, doing so would require a politician with considerable dedication to the issue to be elected in one of the next two South Korean presidential elections. Thus, South Korea needs to amend the ROK-U.S. Agreement for Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation at the earliest stage in the near future so that South Korea can acquire full nuclear latency, and can rapidly go nuclear in a crisis, like Japan is currently able to do so. The South Korean government needs to pursue the creation of a consortium with Japan and the U.S. to facilitate the production and use of enriched uranium in its civilian nuclear power plants. Further, it also needs to work with Tokyo and Washington together on the construction and deployment of nuclear-powered submarines to counter the threat of North Korean submarine-launched tactical nuclear weapons.