성장 없는 고용: 7개 국가의 비교 연구 = Growthless Jobs: A Comparative Analysis of Seven Countries

다국어 초록 (Multilingual Abstract)

The world economy has changed sharply after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. In the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, international trade since the 1990s exhibited an unprecedently high growth, going through the expansion of the global value chains. But in the post-Global Financial Crisis era, international trade has contracted with the rise of protectionism.
The pre-Global Financial Crisis era during 2000~2007 period is an age of ‘jobless growth,’ which means that economic growth rate is relatively higher than the increase rate of employment. In contrast, the post-Global Financial Crisis era during 2011~2015 period is an age of ‘growthless jobs,’ which mean that the increase rate of employment is relatively higher than economic growth rate.
This paper investigates the appearance and the causes of ‘growthless jobs’ in world economy after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. So it analyzes the transition of world economy from ‘jobless growth’ in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to ‘growthless jobs’ in the post-Global Financial Crisis era. World economy is represented by seven countries which include five big economies and two emerging economies. They are United States of America, China, Japan, United Kingdom, Germany, Korea, and Taiwan. And it infers the causes of the transition from ‘jobless growth’ in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to ‘growthless jobs’ in the post-Global Financial Crisis era. Finally, based on the findings, this paper provides policy implications.
To compare ‘jobless growth’ in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era during 2000~2007 period with ‘growthless jobs’ in the post-Global Financial Crisis era during 2011~2015 period, two indicators are used. One is the elasticity of employment to economic growth, that is a value of the increase rate of employed persons denominated by economic growth rate. If the elasticity of employment to economic growth in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is higher than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, we can confirm that there is a change from ‘jobless growth’ to ‘growthless jobs.’ Another indicator is the increase rate of value-added labor productivity per employed person, that is approximated by a subtraction of the increase rate of employed persons from economic growth rate. If the increase rate of labor productivity in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is lower than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era, we can also confirm that there is a change from ‘jobless growth’ to ‘growthless jobs.’
According to the analysis, five economies including Korea, U.S.A., Japan, United Kingdom, and Taiwan reveal robust changes from ‘jobless growth’ to ‘growthless jobs.’ Germany reveals a weak change. But in case of China, the outcomes are contradictory. So we can conclude that world economy except China has changed from ‘jobless growth’ in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era to ‘growthless jobs’ in the post-Global Financial Crisis era.
What are the causes of ‘growthless jobs’ after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis? Some world-wide explanations are plausible. First, because of increase in economic uncertainty, maturity of the global value chains, and the rise of protectionism, international trade has contracted severely in the post-Global Financial Crisis era. The contraction of international trade has induced gains from specialization to decrease. Accordingly, economic growth rate of world economy is lower in the post-Global Financial Crisis era than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era.
Second, there are strengthened financial regulations and weakened credit allocation in advanced economies. Especially in United States of America, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act has become effective since 2010. In United Kingdom, Stewardship Code was established in 2010. These have strengthened regulations on financial institutions, so their role of credit allocation has weakened. Therefore economic growth rate of advanced economies in the post-Global Financial Crisis era is lower than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era.
Third, a great many refugees have come into the member states of EU from Africa and the Middle East. Most of refugees are employed as part-time or temporary workers in service sector such as call centers and cleaning business. Accordingly, the increase rate of employed persons in EU is relatively higher in the post-Global Financial Crisis era than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era.
Besides, non-standard employment relationships, including temporary and part-time employment, have risen since the crisis hit in 2008. In contrast, the drop in total factor productivity growth following the Global Financial Crisis has been widespread and persistent across the world. And that decline has been one of the main contributors to output losses relative to pre-Global Financial Crisis trends.
It seems that there are several causes which are specific to Korea. First, the expansion of capital intensive industries has shrunk, but labor intensive industries have revived after the Global Financial Crisis. Second, the emigration of domestic industries abroad has weakened after the Global Financial Crisis. Third, because the participation rate in labor market of women and old generations increases rapidly, labor supply is more in the post-Global Financial Crisis era than in the pre-Global Financial Crisis era. Forth, demand for service commodities grows very slowly. So in spite of its contributions to employment, service sector contributes little to economic growth.
‘Growthless jobs’ are expected to last for some time. But ‘Growthless jobs’ can never be sustainable. If weak economic growth continues, employment can not but shrink. As a result, ‘Growthless jobs’ will fall in the trap of ‘jobless low-growth’ in the end, which means that both economic growth and employment are depressed together.
If world economy recovers more rapidly than expected, the global value chains and international trade will improve soon. Hence Korean economy will also recover more rapidly than expected. It is crucial to maintain a sound economic structure through continuous structural reforms. In addition to economic growth, employment is a very important issue. Employment is more sensitive to domestic demand than to export. To enlarge employment, better maintenance of domestic demand is desirable.

참고문헌 (Reference)

1 Nature, 543 : 21-36, 2017

2 김준, "외환위기와 글로벌 금융위기: 우리나라 노동시장에 미친 영향을 중심으로" 한국질서경제학회 18 (18): 68-88, 2015

3 Lee, G. T., "‘Growthless Jobs’, a Warning Light against Jobless Low-Growth" LG Economic Research Institute 2014 (2014): 2-17, 2014

4 Lee, J. H., "‘Growthless Jobs’ Are More Dangerous than ‘Jobless Growth’" Hyundai Research Institute 541 (541): 2013

5 "World Trade Organization"

6 Lee, E.C., "World Economy Has Fallen in Over-Supply" POSCO Research Institute 114 : 9-33, 2016

7 International Monetary Fund, "World Economic Outlook" 2017

8 United Nations Council on Trade and Development, "Trade and Development Report 2013" 2013

9 Constantinescu, C., "Trade Developments in 2016: Policy Uncertainty Weighs on World Trade" World Bank Group 2017

10 Sim, S.H, "The Shade of Globalization Is Thicker in Advanced Economies" LG Economic Research Institute 24 : 18-25, 2016

11 Song, Y. K., "The Impacts of Exports on the Structure and Productivity of Korean Manufacturing" Korea Development Institute 2015

12 White Book Publishing Committee on Conquest of the Global Financial Crisis, "The Global Financial Crisis and Policy Counteraction in Korea" 2012

13 "Statistics Korea"

14 Lee, J. H., "It Will Not Be Easy for Firm’s Performance to Be Improved Even Though Business Recovers" LG Economic Research Institute 20-26, 2013

15 "International Monetary Fund"

16 Han, S.W., "Inspection on Conditions for Recovery of Global Trade and Its Prospect" Bank of Korea 2015 (2015): 2015

17 Economist, "Immigrants Are Bringing Entrepreneurial Flair to Germany"

18 Park, Y. J., "How Much Is Domestic Manufacturing Industry Over-Invested?" Hyundai Research Institute 723 (723): 2016

19 Adler, G, "Gone with the Headwinds: Global Productivity" International Monetary Fund 2017

20 Shin, M.Y, "Globalization of Anti-Globalization Era" LG Economic Research Institute 2016

21 "Export-Import Bank of Korea"

22 European Commission, "Employment and Social Developments in Europe 2016" 2016

23 Bank of Korea, "Economic Outlook Report" 2015

24 "Bank of Korea"

25 Ju, H., "A Study on the Industrial Policies of Advanced Countries after the Global Financial Crisis" Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade 2015