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일 단위 SPI와 ROC 분석을 이용한 단기가뭄의 평가
유지영,송호용,김태웅,안재현,Yoo, Ji Young,Song, Hoyong,Kim, Tae-Woong,Ahn, Jae-Hyun 대한토목학회 2013 대한토목학회논문집 Vol.33 No.5
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is widely applied to evaluate for meteorological droughts. However, the SPI is limited to capture a drought event with a short duration, expecially shorter than one month. In this study, we proposed a daily SPI (DSPI) as a way to overcome the limitation of the monthly SPI for drought monitoring. In order to objectively assess the ability of the drought reproduction of the DSPI, we performed a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis using the quantified drought records from official reports, newspapers, etc. The results of ROC analysis showed that the DSPI has an ability to reproduce short-term drought compared with other indices. It also showed that the main cause of historical droughts was the shortage of rainfall accumulated during the time period less than 90 days compared with the rainfall of normal years.