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지역분석 방법론의 진화: 공간, 시간, 그리고 인공지능
김의준,김아영,김슬기 한국지역학회 2025 지역연구 Vol.41 No.4
본 연구는 1980년대 이후 데이터 환경의 변화—정보량의 확대, 자료 생성 능력의 향상, 연산 및 분석 기술의 고도화—가 지역학 분석 방법론의 발전에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지를 체계적으로 고찰한다. 분석 대상은 공간통계와 공간계량경제모형, 공간연산일반균형모형, 그리고 인공지능의 세 범주이며, 이들은 모두 확률론적 분석 체계, 미시적 공간 분석 지향성, 이론·증거 기반 구조라는 공통된 특징을 지닌다. 공간통계와 공간계량경제모형은 공간적 상호의존성·이질성을 핵심 분석 대상으로 삼아 공간 패턴의 탐지와 구조적 추정의 틀을 제공하며, 공간연산일반균형모형은 미시경제학의 최적화 원리와 다부문·복수시장 균형을 결합하여 도시·지역 경제의 자원 배분과 정책 충격을 분석하는 통합적 구조를 제시한다. 또한 인공지능은 신경망·기계학습 기반 기술의 축적과 데이터 처리 환경의 성숙에 따라 정교화된 방법론으로, 예측·추론·의사결정 기능을 갖춘 새로운 분석 패러다임으로 부상하고 있다. 본 연구는 이러한 세 방법론의 이론적 기초와 수학적 구조를 비교·검토하고, 주요 적용 사례를 통해 활용 가능성과 한계를 평가함으로써 향후 지역학 분석의 방향성과 기술적 확장 가능성을 제시한다. This study systematically examines how changes in the data environment since the 1980s—namely, the expansion of information volume, the enhancement of data generation capabilities, and the advancement of computational and analytical technologies—have influenced the development of methodologies in regional sci ence. The analysis focuses on three methodological categories: spatial statistics and spatial econometric models, Spatial Computable General Equilibrium (SCGE) models, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). These approaches share common characteristics including probabilistic analytical frameworks, a micro-level spatial analytical orientation, and theory-evidence-based structures. Spatial statistics and spatial econometric models detect spatial patterns by addressing spatial dependence and heterogeneity. The SCGE model integrates microeconomic optimization with multi-sectoral equilibrium to analyze resource allocation and policy impacts in regional economies. AI, leveraging neural networks and machine learning, offers new predictive and inferential capabilities for regional analysis. By comparing and reviewing the theoretical foundations and mathematical structures of these three methodologies and evaluating their applicability and limitations through major empirical applications, this study presents the direction and technical expandability of future regional science analysis.
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김의준,이정환,박승규 국토연구원 2004 국토연구 Vol.43 No.-
his paper analyzes a structural change and a stability in values of construction orders received in Korea from the first quarter of 1976 to the first quarter of 2002, using the ADF test and LR test for structural breaks. The Results of Likelihood Ratio Test shows that the break points are the fourth quarter of 1993 for the architecture sector, the fourth quarter of 1997 for the seaport/airport and the railroad sector, the first quarter of 1998 for the road/bridge sector, and the first quarter of 1995 for the water/sewage sector. Also, the significant structural change occurred in the foreign construction market in 1983. These are attributed to 1) the Housing Construction Plan(1988~1992) to build up two million housing, 2) the 1997's financial crisis in Korea which caused high interest and foreign exchange rates, and 3) world's economic recovery and slowdown in the Middle East construction industry in 1983. The Comprehensive National Physical Development Plans(1992~2001) could induce up and down of construction investments in the regional markets, focusing on the promotion of the nationally balanced development.
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김의준,이호민,박승규 국토연구원 2005 국토연구 Vol.45 No.-
The main purpose of this paper is to empirically analyse the economical efficiency of spatial concentration of economic activities and population into the Seoul Metropolitan Area(S.M.A). The translog cost function is used to estimate the differences of regional agglomeration economies of the employer density and geographic population density values and the categories of agglomeration economies are classified into urbanization economy, localization economy and economy of scale.The most part of S.M.A have had agglomeration economies and the northern part of S.M.A have had higher agglomeration economies than the southern part. Urbanization economies and economy of scale were found both in the northern and southern part whereas the localization economy only in the southern part of S.M.A. Finally, the agglomeration economies were decreasing in the more concentrated part, and in the less concentrated part of S.M.A more concentration produce larger agglomeration economies.
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김의준 경기연구원 2000 경기논단 Vol.2 No.1
This is concerned with understanding the dynamics of the knowledge-based economies of Kyungki region. This paper finds out that the Kyungki region in terms of the science system has been specialized in the diffusion of knowledge and technology which is derived from the Multi Regional Input-Output Model of Korea. It implies the key function of the region focuses on disseminating knowledge and information to other regions and providing inputs to problem solving. In addition, we develops a new framework of measuring the knowledge assets which are composed of knowledge inputs, process and outputs. The level of input contributing to the formulation of the knowledge assets is ranked as the 8th of Korea in 1997, which is attributed to severe constraints on the land use. The level of performance of knowledge-based economy has been improved enough to nearly achieve the top level of the nation in 1997.
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