오피스시장의 자연공실률 이론모형연구

장용삼 한국지적학회 2010 한국지적학회지 Vol.26 No.2

The purpose of this study is to make a new theoretical study of the natural vacancy rate. The concept of natural vacancy rate is relatively established in the real estate literature. When vacancy rates are above the natural vacancy rate, rents will fall and vacancies will drift upward toward equilibrium. The determination of the natural vacancy rate is therefore significant in that it can facilitate the monitoring of the market conditions since a vacancy rate below the natural vacancy signifies fight market. As the results of this study, we developed the theoretical study such as new theory model. In this study, the natural vacancy rate theory, the pure natural vacancy rate theory, the information adjust natural vacancy Rate theory and the structure adjust natural vacancy rate theory were developed. 본 연구에서는 오피스시장의 특성을 나타내는 중요한 개념인 자연공실률에 대한 새로운 이론 모형의 개발을 연구목적으로 한다. 자연공실률의 기본개념은 기존 부동산학 연구 자료를 통해 발표되어 왔는 데 일반적으로 오피스시장에서 공실률이 자연공실률 상단에 있을 때에는 임대료는 하락하고 공실률은 균형으로 상향 움직이곤 한다. 이러하듯 자연공실률의 계산은 상당히 중요한 데, 그것은 자연공실률 하단의 공실률 흐름이 전반적인 시장 상황의 감시를 용이하게 하기 때문이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 새로운 이론 모형과 같은 이론적 연구를 진행하였다. 또한 오피스시장에서의 수요와 공급시장의 특성을 이해하고 자연공실률에 대한 새로운 이론 모형을 개발하기 위해서, 본 연구에서는 자연공실률이론, 순수자연공실률이론, 정보조절형 자연공실률이론, 구조조절형 자연공실률이론을 개발하였다. 본 연구에서는 지금까지 연구되지 않았던 자연공실률에 대한 독창적인 여러 이론모형개발 및 연구 방법론을 도출하는 데 중점을 두었다.

시간가변 자연공실률 추정을 통해본 서울시 지역별ㆍ등급별 오피스 시장

손동진(Dong Jin Son),이현석(Hyun Seok Lee) 건국대학교 부동산도시연구원 2014 부동산 도시연구 Vol.6 No.2

본 연구는 서울시 오피스시장의 지역별, 등급별 자연공실률 추정을 통하여 오피스 시장의 특징을 살펴보았다. 추정을 위한 자료는 2003년 1분기부터 2013년 2분기까지 분기별 시계열 데이터를 사용하여 시간의 변화에 따른 추이를 함께 고려하였다. 연구결과는 외국의 선행연구 결과와 같이 자연공실률의 수준에 각 지역별 차이가 확인되었고 실제공실률과의 차이도 확인되었다. 아울러 오피스 등급별 차이도 확인하였다. 서울시 전체적으로 자연공실률 평균은 6.7% 수준으로 추정되었고, 실제공실률 평균은 3.3%로 그 차이는 3.4%이며 실제공실률이 보다 낮은 수준을 유지해 온 것으로 확인되었다. 2008년 글로벌 금융위기 전ㆍ후로 나누어보면, 금융위기 직전에 두 공실률의 차이가 크다가 직후부터 그 간격이 점차 좁혀지면서 2013년 2분기에 와서는 실제공실률이 자연공실률 수준에 근접하여 평균 자연공실률 수준에서 동조화 현상을 보이고 있다. 이러한 동조화 상황에서 실제공실률이 자연공실률보다 높을 경우에는 시장이 침체되고 공실관리가 중요해지는 임차인 위주의 시장이 예상된다. 따라서 향후 서울시 오피스 시장에서 지역별, 규모별 공실률 추이를 고려하는 투자와 관리가 더욱 필요하다. This study observed the characteristics of Seoul office market by region and grade based on natural vacancy rate. The data for estimation was considered together with the transition by temporal change as well as quarterly time series data from the Q1 to Q2 in 2013. The study ascertained, similar to the results of previous foreign study, the regional gap in accordance with the level of the natural vacancy rate as well as the gap with the actual vacancy rate. In addition, the difference by the grade of office was verified. Overall, the average of natural vacancy rate was estimated at 6.7% while the average of the actual vacancy rate is 3.3% in Seoul. So it was confirmed the gap of actual vacancy rate was maintained 3.4% lower than the natural vacancy rate. Dividing before and after the global financial crisis in 2008, the gap between two vacancy rates was big just prior to the crisis, however the gap was narrowing down after the crisis. Furthermore the actual vacancy rate is getting closer to the natural vacancy rate, and the synchronization phenomenon at the natural vacancy rate was occurred in Q2 in 2013. In the situation of the synchronization, if the actual vacancy rate is higher than the natural vacancy rate, the tenants-driven market is expected to happen where the market is depressed and the importance of vacancy management is increased. Thus, the investment and management are obviously required considering the development-oriented externally-managed REITs are expected to engage in development projects more stably.

서울시 오피스 시장의 자연공실률 추정에 관한 연구

임재만(Lim Jae Man),서윤희(Seo Yun Hee) 한국지역개발학회 2011 韓國地域開發學會誌 Vol.23 No.2

The natural vacancy rate, which is a similar concept with the natural unemployment rate in labor economy, implies various market friction factors in real estate market interrupt market clearing process. This paper estimates natural vacancy rate of office market in Seoul, and investigates the relationship between real vacancy rate and rent growth. For estimating natural vacancy rate, time-invariant model and time-varying model (Hodrick-Prescott Filter) are used. Although we cannot estimate natural vacancy rates in a part of small office market because increasing vacancy rate do not cause decreasing rents, estimated natural vacancy rates with time-invariant model are 7.8% in Gangnam District, 9.1% in CBD, 5.0% in Mapo & Yeouido District, and average 4.0% in Seoul. Estimated vacancy rates with time-varying model are convergent to real vacancy rates.

北京写字楼市场租金与空置调整关系研究

이진,유홍옥 한국외국어대학교 중국연구소 2014 中國硏究 Vol.62 No.-

Beijing office building market has received the most attention from cross-borders as an investment area. However, the research on the Beijing office market has been only in the initial stage, and in particular, there has been no research on relationships for Rent and Vacancy Rate, which are the key factors of risk of return on investment. This paper presents estimates of adjustment model of office building market using Rent and Vacancy Rate relationships. Rent, Vacancy Rate and new supply is applied to model as characteristic factors of office building market. CPI, interest rate, office workers’ number, GDP, FDI is applied to model as characteristic factors of macroeconomics. The model is estimated using data from the Beijing office market over 2000-2013 and Statistical methods of OLS is used to estimate relationship between the variables. The result shows that the Rent and Vacancy Rate has a positive effect and accord to the previous theory that Vacancy Rate decreases with increasing Rent. Also we found that CPI, interest rate has positive relationship with rent, GDP has positive relationship with vacancy rate, Whereas FDI and office workers have negative relationships with vacancy rate. It means GDP affect office building market as supply factor, on the other hand, FDI and office workers is demand factors in Beijing.

서울 오피스 시장의 임대료조정메커니즘: 자연공실률과 실질임대료 관계를 중심으로

김경민,박정수 국토연구원 2009 국토연구 Vol.62 No.-

Natural vacancy rate, defined as a vacancy rate at equilibrium, has explanatory power in rent adjustment process. The estimation of natural vacancy rate for Seoul office market, however, is not figured out yet. In this venue, the study aims to 1) estimate natural vacancy rate of Seoul office market and 2) find rent adjustment process with excess vacancy. Using quarterly dataset since 1994, major findings are summarized as follows. First, there is an intertemporal variation in the natural vacancy rate of Seoul office market. If planned mega projects and/or office buildings in Seoul metropolitan area are delivered on time, the natural vacancy rate of Seoul office market after 2014 will be quite different comparing with the current one. Second, excess vacancy and real rent show negative correlation, confirming the existence of rent adjustment process. The last but not least, rental adjustment parameter falls into a range of 0.22 to 0.25. It implies that 1%point increase in excess vacancy will lead to 0.22~0.25% decline in real rent quarterly. 오피스 자산을 주 투자대상으로 하는 간접투자기구와 오피스 직접투자의 증가에 따라 서울 오피스 임대료의 변화와 조정메커니즘에 대한 관심이 고조되고 있다. 임대료조정메커니즘의 규명을 위해 외국의 연구들은 자연공실률을 이용하였다. 하지만 서울 오피스 시장의 경우, 임대료 조정 메커니즘을 설명하기 위한 자연공실률 추정치를 찾아보기 힘든 실정이다. 본 연구는 1994년 이후의 분기별 자료를 이용하여 1) 서울오피스시장 자연공실률과, 2) 초과공실을 이용한 서울 오피스 시장 임대료조정메커니즘을 규명하였다. 논문의 결론은 다음과 같다. 첫째, 서울 오피스 시장 자연공실률은 연도별 차이(intertemporal variation)가 존재한다. IMF 이전과 이후 자연공실률 간 차이에서 보듯이 초대형 오피스 건물들이 들어설 2014년 이후에는 서울 오피스 시장은 새로운 차원의 공실률이 나타날 것으로 여겨진다. 둘째, 초과공실률(시장공실률이 자연공실률보다 높은 경우)과 실질임대료 상승률과는 음의 관계다. 초과공실이 존재하면 실질임대료는 하락하며, 반대의 경우–초과공실이 존재하지 않으면 실질임대료는 상승한다. 셋째, 실질임대료 조정계수는 0.22~0.25 사이로 나타났으며, 이는 시장공실률이 자연공실률보다 1%포인트 높은 경우, 실질 임대료는 0.22~0.25% 정도 하락한다.

【社會科學】 : 北京寫字樓市場租金與空置調整關系硏究

리진 ( Jin Lee ),류홍옥 ( Hong Yu Liu ) 한국외국어대학교 중국연구소 2014 中國硏究 Vol.62 No.-

Beijing office building market has received the most attention from cross-borders as an investment area. However, the research on the Beijing office market has been only in the initial stage, and in particular, there has been no research on relationships for Rent and Vacancy Rate, which are the key factors of risk of return on investment. This paper presents estimates of adjustment model of office building market using Rent and Vacancy Rate relationships. Rent, Vacancy Rate and new supply is applied to model as characteristic factors of office building market. CPI, interest rate, office workers`` number, GDP, FDI is applied to model as characteristic factors of macroeconomics. The model is estimated using data from the Beijing office market over 2000-2013 and Statistical methods of OLS is used to estimate relationship between the variables. The result shows that the Rent and Vacancy Rate has a positive effect and accord to the previous theory that Vacancy Rate decreases with increasing Rent. Also we found that CPI, interest rate has positive relationship with rent, GDP has positive relationship with vacancy rate, Whereas FDI and office workers have negative relationships with vacancy rate. It means GDP affect office building market as supply factor, on the other hand, FDI and office workers is demand factors in Beijing.

오피스 임대료, 공실률 모형의 동학적 분석에 관한 연구

전해정 한국부동산연구원 2012 부동산연구 Vol.22 No.3

This research used time series data from the 3rd quarter of 1999 to the 1st quarter of 2012 to assess office rents and vacancy rates in Seoul, city center, Gangnam, Yeoui-do; and to observe the dynamic correlation between the office rents and vacancy rates and the macroeconomic variables affecting office rents and vacancy rates from a theoretical and empirical perspective. After confirming that there was a long run equilibrium relationship between the variables, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to conduct an impulse response analysis and a variance decomposition analysis. Results of the analysis showed differences across locations however, the following variables showed the following relationship respectively in regards to office rent: positive (+) for domestic actual total production, negative (-) for vacancy rate, positive (+) for corporate stock profitability, and positive (+) for office rent itself. Furthermore, the following variables showed the following relationship respectively in regards to vacancy rate: positive (+) for office rent, negative (-) for employment, positive (+) for area of construction permit, and positive (+) for vacancy rate itself. We also confirmed that thoretical models and empirical results were the same and office rent and vacancy were affected by macroeconomic variables, that their interrelationship was significant. There were differences across locations in regards to the results of the theoretical model and empirical analysis, however, most results coincided with each other, and we were able to confirm that economic stimulation enhanced office rent levels and decreased office vacancy rates. 본 연구는 1999년 3분기부터 2012년 1분기까지의 시계열 자료를 이용하여 서울, 도심, 강남, 여의도권의 오피스 임대료, 공실률과 이에 영향을 미치는 거시경제변수와의 동학적 상관관계를 이론적․실증적으로 살펴보았다. 변수들 간에 장기균형 관계가 존재함을 확인 후에 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 이용해 충격반응과 분산분해분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과, 지역별로 차이는 존재하였으나 임대료는 국내실질총생산 충격에 양(+), 공실률에 음(-), 회사채수익률에 양(+)의 반응을 나타냈다. 또한 공실률은 임대료 충격에 양(+), 취업자수에 음(-), 건축허가면적에 양(+)의 반응을 나타냈다. 실증분석결과 이론모형과 동일함을 알 수 있었고 임대료와 공실률은 거시경제변수에 영향을 받으며 상호연관성이 크다는 것을 확인하였다. 이론모형과 실증분석 결과는 지역별로 차이는 존재하나 대부분 일치하였으며 경기활성화가 임대료 수준을 향상시키고 공실률을 낮출 수 있다는 것을 알 수가 있었다.

전월세전환율의 지역별 편차와 공실률

최성호(Seong Ho Choi),배상열(Sang Yeoul Bae),이창무(Chang Moo Lee) 한국주택학회 2015 주택연구 Vol.23 No.4

본 연구는 기존 연구에서 이론적으로 제기된 내용을 토대로 공실률, 투자수익률, 위험프리미엄이 전월세전환율 결정구조의 차이가 존재하는지 여부를 실증분석을 시도하였다. 이론모형의 결과는 전월세전환율은 자본환원율과 기대가격상승률이 높을수록, 혹은 두 가지를 결합하여 요구수익률이 높을수록, 그리고 시장이자율이 높을수록, 마지막으로 시장공실률이 높을수록 높아지는 기제를 지니고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 패널모형을 이용한 실증분석의 결과는 시장이자율보다 지역 주택시장의 특성을 반영하는 시장공실률의 영향력이 전월세전환율에 더 크게 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 실증분석 결과는 시장이자율에 기초한 전월세전환율 규제가 오히려 시장의 균형조건을 왜곡시킬 가능성이 높고 지역주택시장의 특성을 반영하지 못하면서 실효성이 떨어질 가능성이 있음을 보여준다. This study analyzes Monthly Rent with Variable Deposit data in the apartment market to examine a relationship among vacancy rate, market interest rate, expected return on investment, and Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate. We develop a theoretical model of Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate determination structure, according to the previous leverage-effect-seeking hypothesis. The theoretical model yields that Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate is rising when expected return on investment, market interest rate, and vacancy rate increase respectively. For empirical analysis of the theoretical interpretations, panel analysis was carried out on apartment complexes market in 16 regions excepted for Sejong. The results as following. Firtst, the vacancy rate is the most effective factor on Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate among others. Second, the difference of determination structure according to the regions is also an important effect factor. These results show that Chonsei to Monthly Rent Conversion Rate regulation based only on the market interest rate would distort the market balance and be less effective.

패널연립방정식을 이용한 오피스 시장 예측에 관한 실증연구

전해정(Chun, Hae-Jung) 대한건축학회 2016 대한건축학회논문집 Vol.32 No.7

This study analyzed and predicted the office market by composing a panel simultaneous equation using office data and macroeconomic variables of downtown area of Seoul-si, Gangnam district, and Mapo/Yeouido district from second quarter of 2003 to 4th quarter of 2014. This study set office vacancy rate, office maintenance fee, CD interest rate, and index of industrial product as the influencing variables on office rental price, and set office rental price, commercial building start results, and unemployment rate as the influencing variables on office vacancy rate. According to the analysis result, it was identified that vacancy rate and CD interest rate make statistically negative effect and maintenance fee makes positive effect on office rental price, and whereas rental price fell 0.016% when vacancy rate increased 1%, the rental price increased by 1.732% when maintenance fee increased 1% and index of industrial product appeared to have very little influence. It was verified that rental price, commercial building start results, and unemployment rate made statistically significant positive effect on office vacancy rate, vacancy rate increased 2.199% when rental price increased 1%, vacancy rate increased 2.285% when building start result increased 1%, and vacance rate increased 1.363% when unemployment rate increased 1%.

상업 젠트리피케이션 지수와 공실률에 대한 탐색적 분석 - 서울시 사례를 중심으로 -

이진희 ( Jin Hui Lee ) 한국부동산원 2022 부동산분석 Vol.8 No.3

Commercial gentrification has been recognized as a serious urban issue nowadays. It is extremely hard to figure out and response the phenomenon in Korea. Therefore, this paper aimed to use a version developed by previous researches and set the commercial gentrification index based on Seoul. Then the increase in vacancy rate caused by negative effect of the gentrification was identified. A block was an unit of analysis and the time range was from 2015 to 2021. As a result, Seoul suffered the most serious gentrification in 2018. It eased in 2019 but has been much worse due to the COVID-19 pandemic since 2020. However, each autonomous district showed different patterns throughout the period. Some districts mainly functioned as a dwelling zone including Nowon-gu showed little gentrification, while others such as Mapo and Gwang-jin did an opposite case. Gangbuk (districts in the north of Han River) and Gangnam (districts in the south of Han River) gave opposite cases respectively, which resulted in unbalanced revitalization. In light of the comparison between the results of gentrification and the vacancy rates, there was not any significant interrelations, while higher gentrification index resulted in lower vacancy rate. This paper tried to figure out gentrification quantitatively and know any relation between gentrification index and vacancy rate and was expected to used for objective grounds of further measures.